🤖 Google Search is 2023's biggest business loser as AI answers erode it
ChatGPT-class models converge on the same training data, so high-quality answers become available in many places; Google loses 10-15% of search usage and takes a material, measurable hit to profitability and engagement in 2023.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 53.4 WATCH
EMBER
band · contested
▼ SHORT GOOGL
expression · bearish tech
WRONG
result · return -55.4% · vs SPY -77.8%
2024-01-06
born 2023-01-06 (E110) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
GOOGL ·
Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T
LONG
WATCH 61.3
← stronger than this idea (20.6)
GOOGL ·
Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars
LONG
WATCH 47.9
← stronger than this idea (20.6)
GOOGL ·
Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized)
LONG
EMBER 37.7
← stronger than this idea (20.6)
GOOGL ·
Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor
LONG
EMBER 22.9
← stronger than this idea (20.6)
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21 (GOOGL) · Tort floodgates open on social media 20 (GOOGL) · Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis 20 (GOOGL) · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google 6 (GOOGL)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-01-06 → 2024-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT GOOGL (primary play). GOOGL rose 55.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -55.4% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +22.4%
→ vs SPY = -55.4 − (+22.4) = -77.8%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -33.0% — did GOOGL move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Brad Gerstner, Sacks | opposed: Chamath, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-01-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | GOOGL | stock | PRIMARY | the named loser |
Mention log newest first
Brad Gerstner
(regular guest ×1.0)
tech 71% · n=17
· E133 (2023-06-16) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 48:26
SUPPORT
“But I would say, as I sit here today, the distribution of potential for them is less than it was before ChatGPT, the distribution of upside.”
Chamath
tech 45% · n=84
· E115 (2023-02-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 44:22
SUPPORT
“If you add it all up, what Satya said is true, which is even if all we do collectively as an industry is take 500 or 600 basis points of share away from Google, it doesn't create that much incremental cost for us, but it does create enormous headwinds and pressure for Google with respect to how they are valued and how they will have to get revalued.”
Chamath
tech 45% · n=84
· E110 (2023-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 37:19
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“the biggest potential business loser this year is Google Search as measured by pure profitability and engagement. ... will end up being able to get high-quality search results from many places ... Google could lose 10% or 15% of usage to all these other sites,”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -47.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E110 2023-01-06 | init | +40.0 | 40.0 | E110 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x2) |
| E110 2023-01-06 | reinforce | +10.8 | 50.8 | E110 Jason support x1 (new voice) |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -2.0 | 48.8 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -2.0 | 46.8 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.9 | 44.9 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.8 | 43.1 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | reinforce | +10.2 | 53.4 | E115 Chamath support x3 |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -2.1 | 51.2 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -2.0 | 49.2 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -2.0 | 47.2 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.9 | 45.3 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -1.8 | 43.5 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -1.7 | 41.8 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -1.7 | 40.1 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -1.6 | 38.5 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -1.5 | 37.0 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -1.5 | 35.5 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | reversal | -21.3 | 14.2 | E128 Chamath flips |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | reinforce | +19.8 | 31.8 | E133 Brad Gerstner support x2 (new voice) |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | reinforce | +22.7 | 38.6 | E156 Sacks support x3 (new voice) |
| E156 2023-12-08 | oppose | -14.4 | 24.2 | E156 Jason opposes x3 |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E160 silent |