🌍 BOJ is trapped — Japan can never raise rates and the yen keeps depreciating

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-08-09 → 2025-08-09 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT FXY (primary play). FXY fell 1.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +1.1% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +21.0% → α = +1.1 − (+21.0) = -19.9% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +22.2% — did FXY move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks w=1.12

1 scoring event · 78% of moves

+47.2 → net +47.2

Friedberg w=0.93

1 scoring event · 22% of moves

+13.2 → net +13.2

⏳ decay drained -51.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one