+38.9
net board stance
what this means
216.9
-0.1% · close 2026-11-06
-18% / +1% / +63%
1m / 3m / 12m
+74%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
68%
of 52w range · -22.2% off high
1/2
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -30
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle | ▲ LONG | adjacent ×0.5 | 77.9 | +38.9 | RUNNING | 175d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Last mention E295 · silent for 1 episode.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on CRWD
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.5, average vs SPY -30.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth | ▲ LONG | primary | RIGHT | +56.1% | +40.3 | 2025-07-19 |
| 📈 CrowdStrike's outage does lasting damage to its franchise | ▼ SHORT | primary | WRONG | -82.7% | -101.1 | 2025-07-26 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding CRWD, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
And cyber defense is going to use a lot more tokens than just doing a pen test once a year, right? You're going to need continuous monitoring of agents, attack surfaces, all that kind of thing.
Yeah. And that's going to have to go up.
NI
Nikesh Arora
support ×3
▲ on
📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
E294 · 2026-10-23
▶ 16:30
Jason, I think 10 days is too long. I think these things are going to happen much faster than every 10 days. I think part of the challenge we're seeing is we've been talking about technology debt that we will have to go pay sooner than later.
Friedberg
support ×3
▲ on
📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
E291 · 2026-10-02
▶ 18:45
And so I think companies like Palo Alto Networks, I think the investment in this space, what I heard in DC this week was some Fortune 50 CEOs are very worried about cyber defense. That means they're going to start to make this their number one priority to address at the board level. That means the budgets for cyber defense are going to go through the roof.
To build a product, to do continuous cyber defense. And also a friend of the pod, George Kirch, from CrowdStrike. He also released Falcon, his new product, to do cyber defense.
the only way to solve AI cyber attacks is with AI-powered cyber defense. We all know that.
the answer to AI-powered cyber attacks is AI-powered cyber defense. And what we need to do is get the latest and greatest AI-powered cyber defense into the hands of IT departments and CISOs. And again, we're on a clock here to find all these vulnerabilities and patch them before the hackers do.
Friedberg
support ×2
▲ on
📈 AI cyber: the one-time hardening upgrade cycle
E288 · 2026-09-04
▶ 30:39
the sandbox should be dynamic. It should be agentic. It should be defending itself dynamically ... cyber defense will become stronger than, if not better than, any of these offensive systems that are being created with agents
if these models can effectively code perfectly, then there is no exploit that it's not going to find. And we're on a shock clock to replace all the code that's been written in the last 50 or 60 years ... So for the next 10 years, we're going to have security issue after security issue.
This leap from pre-AI cyber to post-AI cyber is going to be a big one-time upgrade cycle... you're going to find all these dormant bugs and vulnerabilities... the Chinese models are going to have these capabilities within approximately six months [so the window is now].
This is an incredible opportunity for the CrowdStrikes and Palo Alto Networks of the world... George [Kurtz] told me there is just a line out the door of people who want this product or service... an incredible revenue stream for everybody.
Cyan Banister
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth
E220 · 2025-03-22
▶ 56:38
When this investment was initially made, there was not a lot of money going into security. There still isn't. It's an under-invested category and with AI and the threat of the types of things that people can build and vibe-coding and everything in between, you're going to need better security. I'm excited to see that maybe this might become an investable category.
Friedberg
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth
E220 · 2025-03-22
▶ 50:24
security has become such a kind of top requirement and product category that it now effectively enables a Beachhead type model to be successful
Sacks
support ×2
▼ on
📈 CrowdStrike's outage does lasting damage to its franchise
E189 · 2024-07-26
▶ 15:52
Similarly, I had my IT department check and make sure that we didn't have it running anywhere and we don't. I'm just gonna be frank, I don't trust this company.
Friedberg
support ×3
▲ on
🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth
E189 · 2024-07-26
▶ 9:59
if Wiz continues to grow at this rate, it's conceivable they could be in the range of a Palo Alto Network's $100 billion market cap in a couple of years, given this momentum and if you progress it forward.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth
E189 · 2024-07-26
▶ 5:16
I think it just goes to show you how bad security is in the cloud and how needed it is. So it doesn't surprise me that Google wouldn't buy something like this. I think Amazon and Microsoft would probably want something like it as well.
Chamath
support ×3
▲ on
🤖 Cloud security is the gating constraint on hyperscaler growth
E188 · 2024-07-19
▶ 1:08:07
in the absence of cloud security, these cloud vendors are going to be constrained in how fast they can grow. So, what an incredible market.