📈 Newsmax's post-IPO meme premium reverts
Ben Shapiro's read on NMAX's post-IPO melt-up: a $10 deal that opened at $14 and printed ~$240 for a >$20B market cap on roughly $150-160M of annual revenue is a GameStop-shaped retail voting machine, not a valuation. Fan-driven retail bid exhausts and the stock gets weighed on fundamentals, landing at a $2-4B market cap.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 21.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT NMAX
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +88.0% · α +56.4%
2026-04-05
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2025-04-05 → 2026-04-05 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT NMAX (primary play). NMAX fell 88.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +88.0% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +31.5%
→ α = +88.0 − (+31.5) = +56.4%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +119.5% — did NMAX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 88.0, α 56.4)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Ben Shapiro
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2025-04-05)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | NMAX | stock | PRIMARY | the named security; the meme premium is the whole thesis |
| ▼ SHORT | DJT | stock | adjacent | same conservative-media retail cohort and the same post-listing meme-premium mechanic |
Mention log
BE
Ben Shapiro
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=0.60 · n=5
· E222 (2025-04-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:51:39
SUPPORT
“I mean, I think it's saying a couple of things. I mean, one, it's saying, obviously, look, I think the PE ratios on the Newsmax trade are ridiculous in the sense that it's going to revert back to something closer to normalcy. I think that it was supposed to trade at 10 bucks and it came out of 14 It spoke to like 240 So it's more like GameStop than anything else. ... It'll end up being, you know, total market cap will probably be somewhere when it lands in like the two to three bill range, somewhere three to four bill, something like that.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -17.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E222 2025-04-05 | init | +21.0 | 21.0 | E222 born by Ben Shapiro (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.60] |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E241 silent |
| E242 2025-09-07 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E242 silent |
| E243 2025-09-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E243 silent |
| E244 2025-09-27 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E244 silent |
| E245 2025-10-03 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E245 silent |
| E246 2025-10-10 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E246 silent |
| E247 2025-10-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E247 silent |
| E248 2025-10-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E248 silent |
| E249 2025-10-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E249 silent |
| E250 2025-11-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E250 silent |
| E251 2025-11-14 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E251 silent |
| E252 2025-11-22 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E252 silent |
| E253 2025-12-06 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E253 silent |
| E254 2025-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E254 silent |
| E255 2025-12-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E255 silent |
| E256 2025-12-31 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E256 silent |
| E257 2026-01-10 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E257 silent |
| E258 2026-01-17 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E258 silent |
| E259 2026-01-30 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E259 silent |
| E260 2026-02-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E260 silent |
| E261 2026-02-13 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E261 silent |
| E262 2026-02-28 | decay | -0.2 | 4.3 | E262 silent |
| E263 2026-03-06 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E263 silent |
| E264 2026-03-13 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E264 silent |
| E265 2026-03-19 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E265 silent |
| E266 2026-03-27 | decay | -0.2 | 3.6 | E266 silent |
| E267 2026-04-03 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E267 silent |