🏛️ Infrastructure-bill tax credits make the captured solar incumbents rip
The climate tax credits inside the infrastructure/reconciliation package are allocated by lobbying rather than by climate impact — doubled and tripled in some places, disallowed in others — and when you follow the dollars they map to large public companies with big balance sheets and big lobbying budgets, i.e. the residential-solar oligopoly (Sun Run, Sun Power) rather than nuclear or direct air capture. Chamath's read of the Street on the day the credits were unveiled: if the bill passes as written, those stocks rip, and the market-cap-to-lobbying flywheel keeps spinning.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.7 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG RUN
expression · bullish politics-market
MISS
outcome · R -13.7% · α -3.8%
2022-09-14
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-09-14 → 2022-09-14 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG RUN (primary play). RUN fell 13.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -13.7% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.9% → α = -13.7 − (-9.9) = -3.8% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: TAN→PARTIAL (+4.8%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-09-14)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | RUN | stock | PRIMARY | Sunrun, named directly as the credit beneficiary with an oligopolistic stranglehold on residential solar + battery installs |
| ▲ LONG | SPWR | stock | adjacent | SunPower, the second name Chamath called out as where the tax dollars go |
| ▲ LONG | TAN | etf | adjacent | solar basket — the sector-level expression of the credit windfall |
Mention log
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E46 (2021-09-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 28:04
SUPPORT
“And where does all the tax credits and tax dollars go? Sun Run, Sun Power. These are companies that basically have this oligopolistic stranglehold on essentially installing solar panels and battery walls in homes across the United States. ... if this bill passes as written, you're going to see these stocks rip”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E94 (2022-09-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:14:34
SUPPORT
“The great thing about the IRA and what Chuck Schumer did is actually will be written in 10 or 15 years from now, because when we get to energy independence, when every home is resilient, the national security calculus in America changes wholeheartedly overnight.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -34.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E46 2021-09-14 | init | +35.7 | 35.7 | E46 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.02] |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -1.3 | 30.3 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | reinforce | +20.2 | 27.4 | E89 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | reinforce | +11.7 | 35.0 | E94 Chamath support x2 [w=1.02] |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E95 silent |