+0.0
net board stance
what this means
13.06
-0.6% · close 2026-09-08
-18% / -7% / +1%
1m / 3m / 12m
-134%
vs SPY since 2021-06-25
36%
of 52w range · -28.1% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 45 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on AAL
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🌍 Delta is not the last one — more variants this fall, a tough winter | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +30.0% | +37.3 | 2022-06-25 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding AAL, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
No, I think getting Omicron helped you because it enabled you to see that this, for you, was largely a nothing burger. And so you could come out of your house and start acting normal. I think there's a lot of people all over the country who are like that.
And thank God, it feels like Omicron is, you know, leading us out of this.
Unless something escapes from the lab again, I think that we're going to be okay. I think this is the end of the end.
My biggest optimism is just that Omicron is a much less virulent virus, and it sweeps through the population, and we slowly see this pandemic becoming less severe.
Some studies show as much as 40 times more infectious than Delta, highly contagious, extreme, very much airborne. It's going everywhere. ... There's no end. There's no end in sight.
there could be this thing happening where Omicron is the you know, the the air bomb that gets dropped, clears the room and then it's all over
They have record cases right now, but deaths and they're also done great with the vaccine
So look, one thing that seems pretty certain, this variant is going to be everywhere fast. ... The R0 on this could be as high as 40, which is, you know, measles by comparison is 12 to 13 ... it's got incredibly good evasiveness around people that have the vaccine or have had the virus. So it's going to spread like crazy.
I'm not changing my behaviors. I made my I made my decision. My risk assessment is if I get it, then I'm doubly protected. And I'm not going to wind up in the hospital. I'm going to focus all my energy on riding my bike and taking my kids out and having a good time. I'm not going back in lockdown.
This is not a big deal. I mean, for me, okay, it was not a big deal. It was like a mild cold. I am not going to change my I'm going to go back to normal, like my pre COVID behavior. And I would tell you, like, if you're double vax, I don't think you need to be that afraid of this.
The point is, guys, Friedberg is right. These things aren't going away. We have a cohort of people who will continue to allow this thing to become worse than it has to be. And I think that there will be economic repercussions and discrimination against those people for that. And I think economically, we are going to take a step back because politicians will try to slow the economy down again.
So, as that starts to happen, the implications for the economy, I think, are pretty significant. Because I think people, whether there's a policy change or not, people are going to get scared again. And people, if we're not kind of enforcing economic lockdown, people will go into social lockdown. And we're going to revisit, you know, more of the behavior we saw over the past year, where people are going to be nervous to travel, people are going to be nervous to fly, people are going to be nervous to go to restaurants. And, you know, the downstream consequences of everyone kind of locking up again, even if the government doesn't enforce lockups, could be pretty catastrophic.
I think you're right and I think the teachers unions, the NEA and the AFT are already putting all sorts of demands on going back to school.
I mean, I think that there's a very good chance that some politicians are going to try to use this for another shutdown in the fall.
I think what we need to solve for is how do we have these vaccines come to market much faster and be much more variable in their efficaciousness because we are going to have a lot more of these kind of emerging variants over the next couple of years with SARS-CoV-2, but also with potentially engineered bugs that we need to be careful about.
We're going to hear about other variants in the fall. It's going to be a tough winter. ... We cannot shut down.