🤖 ChatGPT plugins make OpenAI the next great computing platform
Sacks' call the week OpenAI shipped ChatGPT plugins: ChatGPT is not just an intelligence API in the mold of Stripe, it is a destination site and the most important developer platform since the iPhone and iOS - arguably the biggest ever. Plugins let it intermediate apps, browsers, search and commerce, and the combination of hundreds of millions of users, the browsing plugin and the retrieval API (developers voluntarily handing over proprietary knowledge bases) compounds a lead that grows over the next year, until applications are first incentivized and then competitively forced to participate. The rest of the table takes the other side: Chamath sees no natural blocker and would stay patient, Friedberg doubts the plugin network effect is durable when a 700GB model can be forked.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway 86 (NVDA) · AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway 86 (SMH) · Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion 55 (NVDA) · Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion 55 (SMH) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (MSFT) · DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters 42 (SMH) · Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) 38 (MSFT) · The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives 31 (NVDA) · The AI doomer campaign fails — no FDAI, open source survives 31 (SMH) · SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 24 (MSFT) · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay 21 (MSFT) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (MSFT)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-03-31 → 2024-03-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG MSFT (primary play). MSFT rose 47.1% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +47.1% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +29.6% → vs SPY = +47.1 − (+29.6) = +17.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 47.1, vs SPY 17.5)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Brad Gerstner, Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-03-31)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | MSFT | stock | PRIMARY | OpenAI is private; Microsoft is its commercial and compute partner and the standard listed expression of ChatGPT platform adoption |
| ▲ LONG | NVDA | stock | adjacent | a destination-site ChatGPT with plugin and browsing traffic is an inference-compute demand story |
| ▲ LONG | SMH | etf | adjacent | broad accelerated-compute supply chain if the platform shift is as large as Sacks claims |
Mention log newest first
“Then on top of that, try downloading plugins. It's still a pain in the ass. And if you don't have a plugin, I think there are only 500,000 people using plugin. If you don't have a plugin, you have no new data past 2021, which makes it dead on arrival as a product.”
“Yeah, a lot of what we've been talking about with respect to plugins and the tooling built into AutoGPT, many of the most interesting kind of applications that folks have kind of demonstrated or utilized are really kind of built into this Bard product.”
“Yeah. I mean, I think this is the most important developer platform since the iPhone and the launch of iOS in the App Store, and I would argue maybe ever in our industry, certainly since the beginning of the internet.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -19.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E122 2023-03-31 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E122 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E122 2023-03-31 | oppose | -12.0 | 30.0 | E122 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E122 2023-03-31 | oppose | -12.0 | 18.0 | E122 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | oppose | -12.0 | 4.6 | E125 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E126 2023-04-28 | oppose | -4.6 | 0.0 | E126 Jason opposes x2 |
| E128 2023-05-12 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E128 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | · | 0.0 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | · | 0.0 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | · | 0.0 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E132 Chamath opposes x2 |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | · | 0.0 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | · | 0.0 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | · | 0.0 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | oppose | · | 0.0 | E136 Brad Gerstner opposes x2 |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | · | 0.0 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | · | 0.0 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | · | 0.0 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | · | 0.0 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | · | 0.0 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | · | 0.0 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | · | 0.0 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | · | 0.0 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | reinforce | +18.0 | 18.0 | E147 Friedberg support x3 (flipped from oppose) |
| E147 2023-09-29 | reinforce | +12.3 | 30.3 | E147 Sacks support x2 |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.2 | 27.9 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.1 | 25.7 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.8 | 20.1 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +13.0 | 26.4 | E171 Jason support x2 (flipped from oppose) |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E172 silent |