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🤖 ChatGPT plugins make OpenAI the next great computing platform

Sacks' call the week OpenAI shipped ChatGPT plugins: ChatGPT is not just an intelligence API in the mold of Stripe, it is a destination site and the most important developer platform since the iPhone and iOS - arguably the biggest ever. Plugins let it intermediate apps, browsers, search and commerce, and the combination of hundreds of millions of users, the browsing plugin and the retrieval API (developers voluntarily handing over proprietary knowledge bases) compounds a lead that grows over the next year, until applications are first incentivized and then competitively forced to participate. The rest of the table takes the other side: Chamath sees no natural blocker and would stay patient, Friedberg doubts the plugin network effect is durable when a 700GB model can be forked.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 32.5 EMBER
EMBER
band · contested
▲ LONG MSFT
expression · bullish tech
HIT
outcome · R +47.1% · α +17.5%
2024-03-31
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER — the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
NVDA · Nvidia risk: special-purpose silicon + Huawei SHORT DORMANT 10.4
MSFT · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay SHORT DORMANT 9.3

also touching these tickers, same direction: AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway 87 (NVDA) · AI compute capex supercycle has 12-24 months of runway 87 (SMH) · SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 71 (MSFT) · Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion 58 (NVDA) · Nvidia + Hugging Face makes NVDA the open-source AI champion 58 (SMH) · DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters 45 (SMH) · Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) 27 (MSFT) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 21 (MSFT) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 14 (MSFT)

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2023-03-31 → 2024-03-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG MSFT (primary play). MSFT rose 47.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +47.1% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +29.6%α = +47.1 − (+29.6) = +17.5% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 47.1, α 17.5)
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Brad Gerstner, Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-03-31)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG MSFTstock PRIMARY OpenAI is private; Microsoft is its commercial and compute partner and the standard listed expression of ChatGPT platform adoption
▲ LONG NVDAstock adjacent a destination-site ChatGPT with plugin and browsing traffic is an inference-compute demand story
▲ LONG SMHetf adjacent broad accelerated-compute supply chain if the platform shift is as large as Sacks claims

Mention log

Sacks
Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E122 (2023-03-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 15:11 SUPPORT
“Yeah. I mean, I think this is the most important developer platform since the iPhone and the launch of iOS in the App Store, and I would argue maybe ever in our industry, certainly since the beginning of the internet.”
Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E122 (2023-03-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 20:32 OPPOSE
“As an investor, I think it's important to just stay a little patient because it's not clear to me that there are any natural blockers.”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E122 (2023-03-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 56:48 OPPOSE
“Is there enough of a network effect in the plug-in model, as Sacks pointed out, to really give OpenAI the sustaining competitive advantage? I'm not sure.”
Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E125 (2023-04-21) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 42:24 OPPOSE
“like how impressed Sacks was about plugins and then plugins were rendered useless and somewhat impotent two weeks later by auto GPTs.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E126 (2023-04-28) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 24:35 OPPOSE
“Or should I even bother, so should I bother building, you know, a verticalized app? And it turns out, like, I think you should do the verticalized app.”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E128 (2023-05-12) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 5:23 OPPOSE
“Yeah, a lot of what we've been talking about with respect to plugins and the tooling built into AutoGPT, many of the most interesting kind of applications that folks have kind of demonstrated or utilized are really kind of built into this Bard product.”
Chamath
Chamath tech w=0.90 · n=83 · E132 (2023-06-10) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:30:44 OPPOSE
“And all these Expedia examples that are plugins at GBT make no sense. They make no economic sense. Those companies should go to zero.”
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) tech w=1.41 · n=17 · E136 (2023-07-09) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 21:43 OPPOSE
“Then on top of that, try downloading plugins. It's still a pain in the ass. And if you don't have a plugin, I think there are only 500,000 people using plugin. If you don't have a plugin, you have no new data past 2021, which makes it dead on arrival as a product.”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech w=1.08 · n=65 · E147 (2023-09-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:14:34 SUPPORT
“So if mobile really is the dominant hardware platform that humans are using for computing today, LLMs and these sorts of tools can become the dominant operating system on that hardware.”
Sacks
Sacks tech w=0.77 · n=53 · E147 (2023-09-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:20:18 SUPPORT
“But imagine if the phone perfectly understood what you were saying, then you would just say, call me an Uber, order me food, whatever, and you would just instruct it.”
Jason
Jason tech w=1.05 · n=56 · E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:01:22 SUPPORT
“the idea that you would just talk to a computer or in a chat interface and you wouldn't use an app interface. You would just ask it questions and it would give you answers.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks w=0.77
2 scoring events · 39% of moves
+41.8 → net +41.8
Friedberg
Friedberg w=1.08
3 scoring events · 30% of moves
+19.4 / -12.9 → net +6.5
Chamath
Chamath w=0.90
3 scoring events · 18% of moves
+0.0 / -18.9 → net -18.9
Jason
Jason w=1.05
2 scoring events · 13% of moves
+13.8 → net +13.8
Brad Gerstner
Brad Gerstner w=1.41 regular guest ×1.0
1 scoring event · 0% of moves
+0.0 → net +0.0

⏳ decay drained -17.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E122 2023-03-31 init +32.5 32.5 E122 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.77]
E122 2023-03-31 oppose -10.8 21.6 E122 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.90]
E122 2023-03-31 oppose -12.9 8.7 E122 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=1.08]
E123 2023-04-07 decay -0.3 8.4 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -0.3 8.0 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 oppose -8.0 0.0 E125 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.90]
E126 2023-04-28 oppose · 0.0 E126 Jason opposes x2 [w=1.05]
E128 2023-05-12 oppose · 0.0 E128 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=1.08]
E129 2023-05-19 decay · 0.0 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 decay · 0.0 E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02 decay · 0.0 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 oppose · 0.0 E132 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.90]
E133 2023-06-16 decay · 0.0 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 decay · 0.0 E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01 decay · 0.0 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 oppose · 0.0 E136 Brad Gerstner opposes x2 [w=1.41]
E137 2023-07-14 decay · 0.0 E137 silent
E139 2023-07-27 decay · 0.0 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay · 0.0 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay · 0.0 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay · 0.0 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay · 0.0 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay · 0.0 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay · 0.0 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 reinforce +19.4 19.4 E147 Friedberg support x3 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.08]
E147 2023-09-29 reinforce +9.4 28.7 E147 Sacks support x2 [w=0.77]
E148 2023-10-07 decay -1.1 27.6 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -1.1 26.5 E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20 decay -1.1 25.4 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -1.0 24.4 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -1.0 23.4 E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08 decay -0.9 22.5 E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16 decay -0.9 21.6 E157 silent
E158 2023-12-23 decay -0.9 20.7 E158 silent
E159 2023-12-29 decay -0.8 19.9 E159 silent
E160 2024-01-06 decay -0.8 19.1 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -0.8 18.3 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -0.7 17.6 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -0.7 16.9 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -0.7 16.2 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -0.6 15.6 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -0.6 15.0 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -0.6 14.4 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -0.6 13.8 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -0.6 13.2 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -0.5 12.7 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 reinforce +13.8 26.5 E171 Jason support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.05]
E172 2024-03-29 decay -1.1 25.4 E172 silent