🤖 Natural-language chat disrupts Google's search box

“And ultimately, you know, Google's core product, their search engine, could be radically disrupted by an alternative set system or set of systems that have more of a natural language chat interface.”

“And Google would just give you a reference to like a link to some page, whereas GPT-3 would actually construct the answer, like a multi paragraph answer that was far more detailed and in a way user friendly.”

“Microsoft, I think, is going to release a, and this is a prediction as well, a search engine with OpenAI that has a significant impact on Google's franchise.”

“And that's where business models like a Yelp, for example, or like a web crawler that crawls the web and then presents web page directories to you. Those sorts of models no longer make sense”

“Now I'm in like, that phase where I'm like, yeah, this is impressive, but it didn't actually solve my problem. And it's slightly faster than doing a Google search.”

“So and then for the first time, we're even talking about Google search supremacy being challenged by ChatGPT.”

“And so Microsoft effectively for 10 billion, bought almost 50% of a tool and now will make that tool as pervasive as possible so that consumer expectations are such that Google is forced to decay the quality of their business model in order to compete.”

“Now, I think when you search in AI, you're looking for a very different kind of answer. You're not looking for a list of 10 or 20 links. You're just looking for the answer.”

“This is your key insight. The fact is, if Google gives you an answer, you don't click on ads.”

“So it's certainly going to be a total game changer for a subset of search queries, but to make it economically work for these businesses, whether it's Bing or Google or others, there's a lot of work still to be done.”

“This stuff is not ready for prime time. It's a bit of a parlor trick right now. And I think it's going to blow up in people's faces and their reputations are going to get damaged by it”

“This closes the loop between search and commerce in a way that Google cannot and does not do today. And I think that's what makes it very powerful.”

“And I think that ChatGPT will start by eating a substantial portion of search, because again, you don't have to go through the 20 links. It just gives you the answer.”

“One final thing I'll say, it's extraordinarily important to note that I think Google has such an incredible AI advantage over Microsoft.”

“I feel like it's the product that Google has been scared to do, which is the product that can truly disrupt search, and they're doing it.”

“But its claim is going to come at the expense of search. And so Google may create the best AI in the world, but it's going to have to fight off the cannibalization of core search.”

“You no longer need an index. You need someone to do the retrieval from the index for you. That's the new service.”

“This could actually be the reverse of what everybody's thinking. This could lead to higher CPMs and higher cost per click because of intent.”

“But I think what we're going to find there is that there's some pretty useful use cases, but narrow, where these chat interfaces are very useful and the usage will decay to that number. And that number is probably a fraction of what the peak was.”

“When you have those kinds of experiences, it makes you just want to go to Google, which is what I did. I eventually went to Google to find what I was looking for.”

“And so I think if you think about the evolution of user interfaces in computing, chat as an interface faces quite a bit of friction.”

“So this idea that Google is going to be displaced or they're moving slow, that might be antiquated information.”