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🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated

In the exact scenario Bitcoin was supposed to be built for — a run on the banking system — crypto sold off about 10% instead of rallying. Chamath's read is that nothing revives the crypto market, not even this. Sacks supplies the mechanism: liquidity is all correlated, so when people scramble for cash the most liquid asset is the first thing they dump.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 73.0 GREEN
EMBER
band · contested
▼ SHORT BTC-USD
expression · bearish crypto
MISS
outcome · R -249.6% · α -284.3%
2024-03-11
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT BTC-USD (primary play). BTC-USD rose 249.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -249.6% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +34.7%α = -249.6 − (+34.7) = -284.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: -214.9% — did BTC-USD move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    ▶ MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Chamath, Jason

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-03-11)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT BTC-USDcrypto PRIMARY the asset whose core thesis was on trial; Chamath's receipt is BTC down 10% on the day of the seizure
▼ SHORT COINstock adjacent listed crypto beta — the equity read on the same claim
▼ SHORT ETH-USDcrypto adjacent second major, same liquidity-correlation mechanism

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E119 (2023-03-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:20:08 SUPPORT
“Nothing can revive the crypto market as we're seeing today. Even in a run on the bank, which is exactly what everybody was afraid of in a Bitcoin world, that thing is down 10%.”
Sacks
Sacks crypto w=1.11 · n=18 · E119 (2023-03-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:20:20 SUPPORT
“this is the reason for that, Chamath, is just that what we've seen is that liquidity is all correlated. So when people are panicking about the state of their finances and worried about getting access to their cash, the first thing they dump is crypto because it is very liquid.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E121 (2023-03-24) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 32:43 SUPPORT
“So he's betting $2 million in total on Bitcoin hitting $1 million by June 17th, which there's probably no chance of that happening. A very tiny chance.”
Sacks
Sacks crypto w=1.11 · n=18 · E121 (2023-03-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 35:31 SUPPORT
“Do I think that we're going to have a million dollar Bitcoin in 90 days? I personally find that very unlikely, but you can't say yet.”
Friedberg
Friedberg crypto w=1.08 · n=12 · E121 (2023-03-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 38:47 SUPPORT
“We have a real problem if Bitcoin is the exit ramp for an inflationary crisis because it's not accessible enough. It's not easily transactable.”
Chamath
Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E121 (2023-03-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 51:22 SUPPORT
“if Bitcoin or crypto assets in general were truly a legitimate off ramp and salvation from US dollar hegemony and all of this stuff, why isn't Bitcoin at least at $35,000 a coin right now? It's barely above $28,000. It really hasn't moved that much.”
Jason
Jason crypto w=0.69 · n=13 · E137 (2023-07-14) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 1:01:17 OPPOSE
“With this Ripple ruling, I think this becomes a boon for people to say, well, the scarcity of Bitcoin and Bitcoin's stability”
Chamath
Chamath crypto w=1.00 · n=20 · E169 (2024-03-08) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:22:26 REVERSAL
“So I think it's been a very big year, and I think that psychologically, it's proven a lot of folks wrong, and it's a setup for something really constructive.”
Friedberg
Friedberg crypto w=1.08 · n=12 · E169 (2024-03-08) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:24:30 SUPPORT
“I think the real question is, in the last couple of years, have we really seen a change in Bitcoin being used for transactions or for commerce in any meaningful way? I think the answer is still likely not.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks w=1.11
2 scoring events · 30% of moves
+30.9 → net +30.9
Chamath
Chamath w=1.00
3 scoring events · 29% of moves
+23.4 / -7.2 → net +16.2
Friedberg
Friedberg w=1.08
2 scoring events · 25% of moves
+26.1 → net +26.1
Jason
Jason w=0.69
2 scoring events · 16% of moves
+9.6 / -6.6 → net +3.0

⏳ decay drained -56.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E119 2023-03-11 init +22.2 22.2 E119 born by Sacks (sentiment x2) [w=1.11]
E119 2023-03-11 reinforce +17.5 39.7 E119 Chamath support x2 (new voice)
E120 2023-03-17 decay -1.6 38.1 E120 silent
E121 2023-03-24 reinforce +9.6 47.8 E121 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.69]
E121 2023-03-24 reinforce +8.7 56.5 E121 Sacks support x2 [w=1.11]
E121 2023-03-24 reinforce +10.6 67.1 E121 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=1.08]
E121 2023-03-24 reinforce +5.9 73.0 E121 Chamath support x3
E122 2023-03-31 decay -2.9 70.1 E122 silent
E123 2023-04-07 decay -2.8 67.3 E123 silent
E124 2023-04-14 decay -2.7 64.6 E124 silent
E125 2023-04-21 decay -2.6 62.0 E125 silent
E126 2023-04-28 decay -2.5 59.5 E126 silent
E128 2023-05-12 decay -2.4 57.1 E128 silent
E129 2023-05-19 decay -2.3 54.9 E129 silent
E130 2023-05-26 decay -2.2 52.7 E130 silent
E131 2023-06-02 decay -2.1 50.6 E131 silent
E132 2023-06-10 decay -2.0 48.5 E132 silent
E133 2023-06-16 decay -1.9 46.6 E133 silent
E134 2023-06-24 decay -1.9 44.7 E134 silent
E135 2023-07-01 decay -1.8 42.9 E135 silent
E136 2023-07-09 decay -1.7 41.2 E136 silent
E137 2023-07-14 oppose -6.6 34.6 E137 Jason opposes x1 [w=0.69]
E139 2023-07-27 decay -1.4 33.2 E139 silent
E140 2023-08-04 decay -1.3 31.9 E140 silent
E141 2023-08-11 decay -1.3 30.6 E141 silent
E142 2023-08-18 decay -1.2 29.4 E142 silent
E143 2023-08-25 decay -1.2 28.2 E143 silent
E144 2023-09-01 decay -1.1 27.1 E144 silent
E146 2023-09-22 decay -1.1 26.0 E146 silent
E147 2023-09-29 decay -1.0 24.9 E147 silent
E148 2023-10-07 decay -1.0 23.9 E148 silent
E149 2023-10-13 decay -1.0 23.0 E149 silent
E150 2023-10-20 decay -0.9 22.1 E150 silent
E151 2023-10-27 decay -0.9 21.2 E151 silent
E152 2023-11-03 decay -0.8 20.3 E152 silent
E156 2023-12-08 decay -0.8 19.5 E156 silent
E157 2023-12-16 decay -0.8 18.7 E157 silent
E158 2023-12-23 decay -0.7 18.0 E158 silent
E159 2023-12-29 decay -0.7 17.3 E159 silent
E160 2024-01-06 decay -0.7 16.6 E160 silent
E161 2024-01-13 decay -0.7 15.9 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -0.6 15.3 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -0.6 14.7 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -0.6 14.1 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -0.6 13.5 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -0.5 13.0 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -0.5 12.5 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -0.5 12.0 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 reversal -7.2 4.8 E169 Chamath flips
E169 2024-03-08 reinforce +15.5 20.3 E169 Friedberg support x2 [w=1.08]