🪙 Crypto fails its bank-run test — liquidity is all correlated
In the exact scenario Bitcoin was supposed to be built for — a run on the banking system — crypto sold off about 10% instead of rallying. Chamath's read is that nothing revives the crypto market, not even this. Sacks supplies the mechanism: liquidity is all correlated, so when people scramble for cash the most liquid asset is the first thing they dump.
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-03-11 → 2024-03-11 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT BTC-USD (primary play). BTC-USD rose 249.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -249.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +34.7%
→ α = -249.6 − (+34.7) = -284.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -214.9% — did BTC-USD move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg, Sacks | opposed: Chamath, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-03-11)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | BTC-USD | crypto | PRIMARY | the asset whose core thesis was on trial; Chamath's receipt is BTC down 10% on the day of the seizure |
| ▼ SHORT | COIN | stock | adjacent | listed crypto beta — the equity read on the same claim |
| ▼ SHORT | ETH-USD | crypto | adjacent | second major, same liquidity-correlation mechanism |
Mention log
“this is the reason for that, Chamath, is just that what we've seen is that liquidity is all correlated. So when people are panicking about the state of their finances and worried about getting access to their cash, the first thing they dump is crypto because it is very liquid.”
“if Bitcoin or crypto assets in general were truly a legitimate off ramp and salvation from US dollar hegemony and all of this stuff, why isn't Bitcoin at least at $35,000 a coin right now? It's barely above $28,000. It really hasn't moved that much.”
“I think the real question is, in the last couple of years, have we really seen a change in Bitcoin being used for transactions or for commerce in any meaningful way? I think the answer is still likely not.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -56.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E119 2023-03-11 | init | +22.2 | 22.2 | E119 born by Sacks (sentiment x2) [w=1.11] |
| E119 2023-03-11 | reinforce | +17.5 | 39.7 | E119 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | reinforce | +9.6 | 47.8 | E121 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.69] |
| E121 2023-03-24 | reinforce | +8.7 | 56.5 | E121 Sacks support x2 [w=1.11] |
| E121 2023-03-24 | reinforce | +10.6 | 67.1 | E121 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=1.08] |
| E121 2023-03-24 | reinforce | +5.9 | 73.0 | E121 Chamath support x3 |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -2.9 | 70.1 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -2.8 | 67.3 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -2.7 | 64.6 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -2.6 | 62.0 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -2.5 | 59.5 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -2.4 | 57.1 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -2.3 | 54.9 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -2.2 | 52.7 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -2.1 | 50.6 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -2.0 | 48.5 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -1.9 | 46.6 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -1.9 | 44.7 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | oppose | -6.6 | 34.6 | E137 Jason opposes x1 [w=0.69] |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | reversal | -7.2 | 4.8 | E169 Chamath flips |
| E169 2024-03-08 | reinforce | +15.5 | 20.3 | E169 Friedberg support x2 [w=1.08] |