📈 Gene-edited pig organs unlock an effectively infinite organ supply
Chamath's read on the first CRISPR-Cas9-edited pig kidney transplanted into a living 64-year-old: end-stage renal disease today means dialysis every three days and a slow-moving death sentence, so an effectively infinite gene-edited organ supply is a genuinely compelling replacement. The tradeable read-through is the listed xenotransplantation and gene-editing platforms rather than the private surgical programs.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 16.8 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG UTHR
expression · bullish equities
HIT
outcome · R +31.6% · α +22.0%
2025-03-22
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-03-22 → 2025-03-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG UTHR (primary play). UTHR rose 31.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +31.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +9.6% → α = +31.6 − (+9.6) = +22.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 31.6, α 22.0)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: CRSP→MISS (-42.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-03-22)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | UTHR | stock | PRIMARY | United Therapeutics owns Revivicor, the leading listed gene-edited pig-organ program |
| ▲ LONG | CRSP | stock | adjacent | pure-play on the CRISPR-Cas9 editing platform Chamath names as the enabling step |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E171 (2024-03-22) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:11:55
SUPPORT
“when you're at that end stage renal disease, you're getting dialyzed every three days for up to four, five, six hours... So the idea that you could now use this effectively infinite source of seems really compelling.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -14.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E171 2024-03-22 | init | +16.8 | 16.8 | E171 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) [w=0.84] |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.6 | 15.4 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.2 | 5.8 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.5 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.2 | 4.0 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.2 | 3.7 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.1 | 3.4 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.1 | 3.0 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.1 | 2.9 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.1 | 2.8 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.1 | 2.7 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.1 | 2.6 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.1 | 2.5 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.1 | 2.4 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.1 | 2.3 | E220 silent |