🌍 Markets are bottoming now - the Fed breaks something and the Fed put returns

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E98 (2022-10-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 36:19 SUPPORT

“And then mark my words, the Federal Reserve will intervene. This is why I think we're in a bottoming process.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E98 (2022-10-01) · sentiment · strength 3 ▶ 1:15:15 OPPOSE

“I guess what I'm saying is that I personally would not want to enter the market until some of these fat tail risks are taken off the table.”

Friedberg macro w=0.93 · n=40 · E98 (2022-10-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:19 OPPOSE

“and now equity markets are turning down, bond markets have turned down, interest rates have spiked, and there's a bunch of these currency problems. So I'm very nervous about the flow of capital”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E98 (2022-10-01) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 14:56 SUPPORT

“It certainly feels like the double bottoming out process was the bouncing along the bottom.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E114 (2023-02-04) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 2:22 SUPPORT · horizon 3mo

“And long story short, he didn't. That was a head fake, and the markets just ripped higher. Then we went into the COVID pandemic and all of that stuff happened. So I think we're about to replay a little bit of that, at least in the next 30 to 90 days.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E121 (2023-03-24) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 20:46 REVERSAL

“either in a world of inflation run amok because the Fed isn't hiking fast enough, which just destroys future cash flows, or in a world where the Fed pivots in a moment like this, and Nick, you can show the second chart, both result in the same outcome, which is that you just see these massive drawdowns in the value of risk assets.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E133 (2023-06-16) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 19:38 SUPPORT

“So we're almost at the end of, I think, the bottoming though.”

Chamath macro w=1.06 · n=47 · E137 (2023-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 5:02 SUPPORT · horizon 18mo

“And so I think right now in the next sort of like 12 to 18 months is really when the bottom is put into the market. It's before the Fed starts cutting.”

Sacks macro w=1.12 · n=40 · E137 (2023-07-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 10:56 SUPPORT

“So there is room for the software index to run up pretty nicely here. You could argue that it's undervalued or fairly valued.”

Jason macro w=1.27 · n=30 · E137 (2023-07-14) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 7:20 SUPPORT

“I did J trading starting last summer and I'm up, whatever, 25%, something crazy like that because I picked all the big tech companies”

Brad Gerstner (regular guest ×1.0) macro w=1.00 · n=10 · E141 (2023-08-11) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:09:47 SUPPORT

“In 2022, we had this massive correction in the public markets. We believed that they overshot. In part, we believed that because we didn't think we were going to have hyperinflation forever, et cetera. And so you and I invested in, you know, Metta and a lot of other things that were on their ass.”