🏛️ Ukraine risk is already ring-fenced - even a nuclear incident barely moves markets

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2022-10-01 → 2023-10-01 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG SPY (primary play). SPY rose 18.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +18.4% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +18.4% → vs SPY = +18.4 − (+18.4) = +0.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses. (SPY is itself the primary here — scored on return alone.)
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 18.4, vs SPY 0.0)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | opposed: Friedberg, Sacks | benchmark-primary: scored on R alone

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 51%

1 scoring event · 53% of moves

+35.0 → net +35.0

Friedberg 42%

2 scoring events · 26% of moves

+0.0 / -17.1 → net -17.1

Sacks 48%

1 scoring event · 22% of moves

+0.0 / -14.4 → net -14.4

⏳ decay drained -3.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one