📈 Telehealth keeps its COVID share gain while e-commerce mean-reverts
Unlike e-commerce, the COVID surge in virtual care does not fully mean-revert: 36% of US patients used a telehealth service in 2021, a 420% increase over 2019, and the convenience edge over sitting in a waiting room for a routine prescription or consult is real enough that a structurally higher share of visits stays virtual after lockdowns end. Friedberg calls it 'a significant sticking point' and 'an acceleration in that department' on the same episode the besties write off Shopify, Peloton and the rest of the stay-at-home cohort.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 30.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG TDOC
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -23.3% · α -36.0%
2023-07-29
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-07-29 → 2023-07-29 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TDOC (primary play). TDOC fell 23.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -23.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +12.7% → α = -23.3 − (+12.7) = -36.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: HIMS→HIT (+39.6%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-07-29)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TDOC | stock | PRIMARY | largest listed pure-play virtual-care platform and the name Jason cites as off 90% from the peak - the direct instrument for 'telehealth share sticks' |
| ▲ LONG | HIMS | stock | adjacent | direct-to-consumer telehealth, and levered to exactly the female-skewed prescription categories Friedberg calls out (60% of telehealth patients are women) |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E89 (2022-07-29) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 23:53
SUPPORT
“And 36% of patients used a telehealth service in 2021, 420% increase over 2019 And so despite some reversion post-COVID, post lockdowns, there's a significant sticking point that and I think 60% of telehealth patients are women.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -25.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E89 2022-07-29 | init | +30.3 | 30.3 | E89 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.87] |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.1 | 26.8 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.0 | 24.7 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.0 | 23.7 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.9 | 22.8 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.9 | 21.0 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.5 | 10.9 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E139 silent |