📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT MSTR (primary play). MSTR fell 51.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +51.0% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.8% → vs SPY = +51.0 − (+14.8) = +36.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +65.8% — did MSTR move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 51.0, vs SPY 36.2)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Gavin Baker, Jason, Joe Lonsdale | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: COIN→PARTIAL (+13.1%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Jason 49%

1 scoring event · 35% of moves

+19.6 → net +19.6

Gavin Baker 67% regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 31% of moves

+17.5 → net +17.5

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 21% of moves

+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0

Joe Lonsdale regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 13% of moves

+7.4 → net +7.4

⏳ decay drained -27.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one