📈 MicroStrategy's convert-funded Bitcoin flywheel breaks at scale

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-12-07 → 2025-12-07 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT MSTR (primary play). MSTR fell 51.0% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +51.0% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.8% → α = +51.0 − (+14.8) = +36.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
   Stock-selection read: +65.8% — did MSTR move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 51.0, α 36.2)

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   · MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Gavin Baker, Jason, Joe Lonsdale | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: COIN→PARTIAL (+13.1%)

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Gavin Baker w=1.33 regular guest ×1.0

1 scoring event · 59% of moves

+46.7 → net +46.7

Jason w=0.97

1 scoring event · 15% of moves

+11.8 → net +11.8

Friedberg w=0.87

1 scoring event · 13% of moves

+0.0 / -10.4 → net -10.4

⏳ decay drained -48.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one