Invesco DB Agriculture Fund

Chamath oppose ×1 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E202 · 2024-11-01 ▶ 9:03

And by the way, this is across the board. It wasn't just CPG companies, but Dropbox, as an example, same sort of thing.

Jason oppose ×2 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 38:34

Well, but they're also cutting stores and they're cutting things and projects that are inefficient. So I just think there's going to be massive efficiency in all sectors. That's going to be the theme for the next year.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 40:09

But Friedberg is right. We're in a real serious problem because it's like these systems have remained the way that they had been for a very long time.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 📈 The real economy is already squeezed while software keeps its pricing power E191 · 2024-08-09 ▶ 31:41

I remain highly concerned about many sectors of the economy that are deeply challenged right now, particularly the industrial sectors, manufacturing sectors, the agricultural sectors, but services and software sectors where you can raise prices and you have a nice high margin business, you can continue to grow and look good.

Jason support ×1 ▼ on 🛢️ Boosted breeding delivers a step-change in crop yield E179 · 2024-05-17 ▶ 58:58

And then all these people buying up farmland in America, that could devalue that farmland if that wasn't as limited of a resource.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🛢️ Boosted breeding delivers a step-change in crop yield E179 · 2024-05-17 ▶ 40:23

Like the yield on some of these plants goes up by 50 to 100% or more. Just to give you a sense, like in the corn seed industry, breeders that are breeding corn are spending $3 billion a year on breeding, and they're getting maybe 1.5% yield gain per year. With our system, we are seeing 50 to 100% jump in the size of these plants.

Jason oppose ×1 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E96 · 2022-09-17 ▶ 1:16:45

It hasn't turned out to be disastrous yet.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E96 · 2022-09-17 ▶ 1:17:12

Yeah, we have a massive starvation problem. The UN told told everyone, I mean, no one writes about this stuff because it's seemingly not interesting in mainstream media, which I don't freaking understand. But the UN thinks that 345 million people now are incrementally marching towards starvation.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E94 · 2022-09-01 ▶ 58:25

And then obviously European farmers are having issues. And combine that with the geopolitical issues of the Ukraine crisis and the natural gas pricing being so high, one third of ammonia plants have been shut down in Europe. And they think that ammonia and fertilizer production may drop by as much as one half in Europe because of the crisis.

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E90 · 2022-08-05 ▶ 26:49

There's an emerging problem with food insecurity in Africa, South Asia, around the world.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E87 · 2022-07-14 ▶ 13:49

So, the result of that was that overall production, agricultural production, fell by a third and rice production fell by 43% and rice is, you know, the biggest staple in the country. So, now you got people there starving or going hungry.

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E87 · 2022-07-14 ▶ 12:04

The problem with going organic and organic fertilizer was all of the small farms shut down. All of the large farms had 20 to 30% crop yield reductions. The prices of food went crazy.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E86 · 2022-07-08 ▶ 55:17

But meanwhile, these governments are in a frenzy to solve the climate change problem. And, you know, they're going to start to pass these laws that really hurt the livelihoods of ag producers.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E86 · 2022-07-08 ▶ 57:51

So they got smart on energy. And now they're about to repeat their same dumb mistake of basically prohibiting this area where they have an enormous natural advantage, which is food production.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E85 · 2022-06-30 ▶ 1:13:19

if this war is never ending and the famine and the impact on 40 million people or something like that, that Friedberg predicted is actually going to happen in the next six months

Friedberg reversal ×2 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E84 · 2022-06-24 ▶ 41:58

wheat is down, I think, 30%, lumber is down 50%, gas prices are coming down. ... there are some of these, you know, commodity spikes that we've experienced over the past couple of quarters, particularly recently, that have had a significant part of the fueling effect on the inflationary trickle down into ultimately end products and whatnot. And those are coming down.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers E75 · 2022-04-09 ▶ 1:04:15

countries like China and others started to stockpile. They started to buy lots and lots of supply, drive up their stocks and their reserves, you know, for fear of the famine that's about to hit us in about nine months. ... they just downgraded the number of corn acres that are going to get planted this year, which is happening starting this month, from 93 million acres to 89 million.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ War plus fertilizer costs cause a global crop shortfall and famine in a year E74 · 2022-04-01 ▶ 1:19:50

there is an expectation that we could see up to an 80% decline in planted acres in the Ukraine. ... Fertilizer prices through the roof because nat gas has gone up, so ammonia prices have gone up, potash exports are prohibited from Russia, so potash has gone up. ... for a lot of farmers, it's actually uneconomical, not just in Illinois, but around the world now, where the cost of the inputs, the cost of rent, the cost of production exceeds the expected profit coming out of the farm. And so farmers are not going to plant. ... That means there's going to be less production over the next year. That means famine hits us in a year.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers E72 · 2022-03-19 ▶ 16:39

So there's a number of first order and then second order effects that are not just about sanctions, but also about export controls by Russia that are creating swings in food markets like we've never seen and will almost certainly lead to widespread famine by the end of this year at this point. ... the price of ammonia fertilizer, nitrogen-based fertilizer has gone from $200 a ton to $1,000 a ton ... So now it's so expensive to grow a crop that a lot of farmers around the world are pulling acres out of production

Chamath reversal ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 21:30

No. And the other thing, in fact, it's the opposite. ... What I can tell you is I think that prices are too high in certain core commodities and goods. I think what's going to happen is we are going to find a way to subsidize those prices coming down.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 1:11:56

Today, corn, I think, is trading at $7.60 a bushel. That hasn't happened, guys. I can't tell you in how long. This was a commodity that was trading at $3.50 a few months ago. ... The trickle-down effect, as we're already seeing in California, or San Francisco, with the average price per gallon of gas at over $5. The trickle-down effect on purchasing behavior, on businesses defaulting because suddenly their counterparties dry up.

Friedberg support ×3 ▲ on 🛢️ Global drought turns self-sufficient countries into food importers E71 · 2022-03-05 ▶ 18:48

By the way, Russia and the Ukraine combined account for roughly 25% of global wheat exports. ... That wheat goes to Egypt and from Egypt it goes throughout Africa. And there's a lot of nations and a lot of people that depend on that food supply. And that food supply is now cut off.

Sacks support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E67 · 2022-02-12 ▶ 1:03:46

there was a really interesting chart on inflation that actually Zero Hedge tweeted. And I threw it up in the notes here where they said real hourly earnings are negative 1.7 percent. It's the 10th month in a row where US incomes aren't keeping up with inflation. ... Actually, as it turns out, it boosted inflation so much that people are feeling worse off, even though their wages went up slightly, because on a net basis, their earnings are down. So I just think it's a good reminder that you can't just like print wealth. You can't print your way to prosperity.

Chamath reversal ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E64 · 2022-01-22 ▶ 44:31

But David is saying something really important. The risk, in my opinion, is not of runaway inflation anymore. And the reason was what happened this weekend was incredibly important.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Stimulus trillions show up as real inflation (and CPI has been understating it) E60 · 2021-12-23 ▶ 43:04

But now it turned out that the inflation was not transitory. And so the use of the word transitory, I predict, will in fact be transitory.