🌍 Red Sea blockade spikes freight rates and re-ignites goods inflation
Houthi missile and drone attacks on the Bab-el-Mandeb strait force the five largest liners around the Cape of Good Hope, cutting effective container capacity 20-25% on the ~30% of world container volume that transits Suez. Ocean freight Asia-Europe is already ~3x a month ago, air freight is next if it persists, and because freight demand is inelastic the cost passes straight through - hitting European consumer prices hardest while adding only ~8% transit time to the US East Coast. Tradeable as a bid under container-liner and freight earnings.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 78.4 GREEN
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ZIM
expression · bullish macro
HIT
outcome · R +154.2% · α +127.6%
2024-12-23
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-12-23 → 2024-12-23 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ZIM (primary play). ZIM rose 154.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +154.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +26.6% → α = +154.2 − (+26.6) = +127.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 154.2, α 127.6)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Ryan Petersen, Sacks | proxy-sensitive: FDX→PARTIAL (+8.9%); MATX→PARTIAL (+26.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-12-23)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ZIM | stock | PRIMARY | container liner whose earnings are levered directly to Asia-Europe spot freight rates |
| ▲ LONG | FDX | stock | adjacent | Petersen's call that ocean diversion pulls freight into air, running up air-cargo prices |
| ▲ LONG | MATX | stock | adjacent | ocean carrier that benefits when global capacity is absorbed by longer routings |
Mention log
RY
Ryan Petersen
(regular guest ×1.0)
macro: 4 resolved, unproven
· E158 (2023-12-23) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 11:02
SUPPORT
“About 30% of all ocean container traffic flows through the Suez and through the Red Sea. ... So you're talking about a 20, 25% cut in shipping capacity on the 30% of all containers.”
Friedberg
macro w=0.93 · n=40
· E158 (2023-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 33:55
SUPPORT
“the fact that the insurance companies won't insure the ship anymore means that now that ship can't travel and that's tens of millions of dollars of commerce that gets shut down off of a few thousand dollar investment. ... there are many other groups like this that may get emboldened and you start to see more activity in other regions as well”
Chamath
macro w=1.06 · n=47
· E161 (2024-01-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 5:32
SUPPORT
“This is really an issue for Europe. It's not an issue for the United States because there are alternative routes. ... what we're really debating is what is the risk of inflation and a backup of goods and shipping rates into Europe?”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -72.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E158 2023-12-23 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E158 born by Ryan Petersen (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E158 2023-12-23 | reinforce | +13.9 | 55.9 | E158 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=1.06] |
| E158 2023-12-23 | reinforce | +9.2 | 65.1 | E158 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.93] |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -2.6 | 62.5 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -2.5 | 60.0 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | reinforce | +5.6 | 65.5 | E161 Friedberg support x2 [w=0.93] |
| E161 2024-01-13 | reinforce | +5.5 | 71.0 | E161 Chamath support x2 [w=1.06] |
| E161 2024-01-13 | reinforce | +7.3 | 78.4 | E161 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=1.12] |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -3.1 | 75.2 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -3.0 | 72.2 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -2.9 | 69.3 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -2.8 | 66.6 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -2.7 | 63.9 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -2.6 | 61.3 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -2.5 | 58.9 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -2.4 | 56.5 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -2.3 | 54.3 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -2.2 | 52.1 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -2.1 | 50.0 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -2.0 | 48.0 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -1.9 | 46.1 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -1.8 | 44.2 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -1.8 | 42.5 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -1.7 | 40.8 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -1.6 | 39.1 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.0 | 24.0 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.9 | 22.1 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E208 silent |