🏛️ Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get taken out of conservatorship

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-03-15 → 2026-03-15 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG FNMA (primary play). FNMA rose 4.8% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +4.8% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +18.1% → α = +4.8 − (+18.1) = -13.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
4. Rule fired:
   · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5

   · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0

   ▶ MISS — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: FMCC→PARTIAL (+9.1%)

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath w=1.02

1 scoring event · 100% of moves

+35.7 → net +35.7

⏳ decay drained -29.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one