📈 GameStop mania ends very badly for late buyers
GME at squeeze prices is wildly overvalued; the hedge funds have regrouped, Citadel sits on both sides of the trade, and retail piling in at these levels will be left holding the bag — 'the house always wins.'
0
CONVICTION
peaked 56.1 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT GME
expression · bearish equities
HIT
outcome · R +56.5% · α +37.5%
2022-01-30
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-01-30 → 2022-01-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT GME (primary play). GME fell 56.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +56.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +19.0%
→ α = +56.5 − (+19.0) = +37.5%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +75.5% — did GME move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 56.5, α 37.5)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-01-30)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | GME | stock | PRIMARY | the meme-squeeze stock itself, ~$325 at taping |
Mention log
Sacks
equities w=0.89 · n=96
· E19 (2021-01-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 43:10
SUPPORT
“Now, anyone who's piling into it, I'd be real careful because I think the hedge funds have regrouped, you know, and the idea that you're going to beat them at their own game, you know, when, look, I mean, Citadel is executing your trades. ... They're on the other side of this trade. ... And so, you know, I just think the house always wins. ... do I personally think GameStop is overvalued? Yes, of course. I think it's going to end very badly.”
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E19 (2021-01-30) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 27:22
SUPPORT
“Don't you think all this attention then drives more people to buy GameStop... and that they're still going to get crushed because they're still going to have to cover?... Are they going to be the last people holding the bag?”
VL
Vlad Tenev
(guest ×0.5)
no equities track record
· E22 (2021-02-13) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 35:10
SUPPORT
“I'd probably want to understand how someone could lose money when they couldn't buy a stock at the all-time high ... But Thursday was the all-time high.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -50.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E19 2021-01-30 | init | +31.0 | 31.0 | E19 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.89] |
| E19 2021-01-30 | reinforce | +12.1 | 43.1 | E19 Jason support x1 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E20 2021-02-03 | decay | -1.7 | 41.3 | E20 silent |
| E21 2021-02-06 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E21 silent |
| E22 2021-02-13 | reinforce | +5.4 | 45.1 | E22 Vlad Tenev support x1 (new voice) [w=0.50] |
| E22 2021-02-13 | reinforce | +7.3 | 52.4 | E22 Sacks support x2 [w=0.89] |
| E23 2021-02-20 | decay | -2.1 | 50.3 | E23 silent |
| E24 2021-03-06 | reinforce | +5.8 | 56.1 | E24 Jason support x1 [w=0.97] |
| E25 2021-03-13 | decay | -2.2 | 53.9 | E25 silent |
| E26 2021-03-20 | decay | -2.2 | 51.7 | E26 silent |
| E27 2021-03-27 | decay | -2.1 | 49.6 | E27 silent |
| E28 2021-04-01 | decay | -2.0 | 47.6 | E28 silent |
| E29 2021-04-17 | decay | -1.9 | 45.7 | E29 silent |
| E30 2021-04-23 | decay | -1.8 | 43.9 | E30 silent |
| E31 2021-05-01 | decay | -1.8 | 42.2 | E31 silent |
| E32 2021-05-13 | decay | -1.7 | 40.5 | E32 silent |
| E33 2021-05-22 | decay | -1.6 | 38.8 | E33 silent |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.6 | 37.3 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.5 | 35.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.4 | 33.0 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E65 silent |