📈 Rate cuts plus the AI wave start a new venture cycle - a golden era, not a bubble

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E196 (2024-09-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:06:42 SUPPORT

“if these interest rate cuts are real, like if we just got 50, if we get another 50 this year, if inflation is really tamed, and it's never going to go to zero, but if they go down substantially, and we have this new AI disruption, this new AI tailwind, we could be back in another golden era.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E196 (2024-09-20) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:22 OPPOSE

“you can't have so many companies waiting with very, very few ways of accessing public market capital and exposure. I just think this is, that is fundamentally broken, and we're going to have to reinvent.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E199 (2024-10-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:03 SUPPORT

“This is the best time in probably five years to have a growth fund.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E199 (2024-10-11) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 49:59 SUPPORT

“You know, this is a great setup for M&A. It's a great setup for IPOs, starting to look like.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E201 (2024-10-25) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 38:46 OPPOSE

“I'm trying to sell every single SaaS startup I have in secondary markets”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E201 (2024-10-25) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 39:08 SUPPORT

“the bottom feeders went from offering like an 80% discount to now a 25% discount”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 24:19 OPPOSE

“I don't think that you're going to see these crazy M&A deals that I think everybody is expecting. I also don't anticipate a lot of these big companies going public, at least in the first half of the year. And the only reason I say that is I just think that like this year and the first half of next year, what's the difference? The IPO market is what the IPO market is. And if the 10 year is back to 4.5%, 5%, that's not a compelling strategy for some SaaS company or some internet business that didn't take an opportunity to go public when rates were at zero.”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E204 (2024-11-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 29:59 SUPPORT

“So I think those two things, the capitulation of all these boards and founders are going to say, you know what, let's take the haircut, let's go public, and let's tell our story and see if we can make it work as a public company. And then the people who feel one step weaker than that, I think they want to cash their chips in.”

Keith Rabois (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=0.60 · n=5 · E207 (2024-12-13) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:07 SUPPORT

“My anecdotal experience is there's AI companies where the market's pretty hot, maybe cooling a little bit, but hot, and AI companies with the right team are getting funded frequently, quickly, etc.”

Philippe Laffont (guest ×0.5) no equities track record · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:48 OPPOSE

“ever since, you know, the 20 and 21, which were very high, if you look at 22, 23, 24, and now the 25, I'm like, how is this that it's worse than 0.4, 0.5, 0.6 that were normal years? How is this worse than 13 and 14 and 15?”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E227 (2025-05-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:09:05 OPPOSE

“And now we have venture capital constricting in terms of new funds being done. And people are making larger funds to do later and later stage investments”

Thomas Laffont (regular guest ×1.0) equities w=1.00 · n=6 · E232 (2025-06-21) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:02:59 SUPPORT

“I do think that we're starting to see a healthier market where we know a lot of dollars have gone in, but now we're starting to see some dollars coming out. So I think that's both in M&A, by the way, and it's also in IPOs.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E232 (2025-06-21) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:17:01 SUPPORT

“really what happened was I had a lot of very smart money people on Wall Street and some crypto folks call me that I respect. ... Basically, what they said is like, it would be really good if you did it. I don't know if I'm going to do it, but I'm heavily leaning towards doing it.”