-3.4
net board stance
what this means
99.79
-0.3% · close 2026-09-08
+5% / -10% / -65%
1m / 3m / 12m
-93%
vs SPY since 2024-12-07
4%
of 52w range · -65.8% off high
—
hit rate as primary
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Legacy sportsbooks are toast | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 6.9 | -3.4 | — | 44d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on FLUT
No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -17.4% | -25.0 | 2025-04-19 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding FLUT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
a billion or two billion at nine billion. Then the next weekend, they announced sports betting. And now they're raising money 30 days later, ... you can see by the way, the way that DraftKings and FanDuel stock have reacted to this. Those companies are toast. Toast.
Chamath
support ×1
▲ on
📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet
E193 · 2024-08-23
▶ 41:28
I mean, I think these are really good businesses, but they are some combination of entertainment and gambling.
Jason
support ×2
▲ on
📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet
E175 · 2024-04-19
▶ 1:19:52
The states are getting massive amounts of revenue, $11 billion generated last year, up 44.5%... The sportsbooks, obviously killing it. DraftKings got a $20 billion... It's making the games more engaging. And the media is loving this.
Chamath
support ×3
▲ on
📈 Gamified betting apps take a rising share of the consumer wallet
E175 · 2024-04-19
▶ 1:17:42
everything is being gamified ... So these forms of gambling and addiction are just going to skyrocket, I think, because you have these apps that are really incredibly well-engineered to get you super hooked.