📈 Private equity model is broken

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2025-10-03 → 2026-10-03 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT BX (primary play). BX fell 31.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +31.0% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.2% → vs SPY = +31.0 − (+16.2) = +14.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +47.2% — did BX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   ▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 31.0, vs SPY 14.7)

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: APO→PARTIAL (+7.9%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 69% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 31% of moves

+19.0 → net +19.0

⏳ decay drained -46.2 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one