📈 Rivian at $100B+ is disconnected from reality

“Rivian has 17 billion in cash. Somebody asked me at the poker game last night, what I value Rivian at, I said, 17 plus 3, 17 million in cash plus 3 billion, double roughly what Tesla's was the market's hotter right now, whatever. But I put them at 20 billion and people were giving a hard time about it. I said, I think that's actually the realistic valuation for this company. ... No, but the distance between the valuation and reality is in the $50 to $100 billion range.”

“Rivian, just in defense of Rivian for a second, what I have heard is that it's a it's a well-engineered car or truck rather. They've done a very smart path to market, which is essentially to, you know, build these delivery trucks for Amazon that allowed them to even frankly, you know, be default alive. ... What I have heard from people who were investors in both Lucid and Rivian is that they have sat in the cars, they've driven the cars, they've spent time with them, they've seen the factories, and it's very much real. Now what they're debating is ramp and velocity and scale. I don't know. I don't have a position in either.”

“I don't know anything about this Rivian company, but where I think J. Cal's right is we've seen over and over again that when a company gets, when a startup gets a billion-dollar-plus valuation without a product, invariably, it ends up somewhere between a disappointment and outright fraud.”

“other people are coming in and looking at this company and saying they've built facilities, they've built assembly lines, and they've got pre orders and bookings for lots and lots of cars down in the future. ... the market is looking at a time horizon that it has never looked at before, which is making bets that are at 10, 15, 20 years in the future. And that's because of the condition that we're in right now from a monetary policy point of view. Interest rates are so low, there's no where to get yield in other assets.”