+0.0
net board stance
what this means
20.89
-3.6% · close 2026-09-08
-18% / -12% / -34%
1m / 3m / 12m
-77%
vs SPY since 2024-09-27
8%
of 52w range · -38.3% off high
—
hit rate as primary
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Where the winds are blowing
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Track record on YELP
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| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +116.3% | +35.2 | 2026-01-13 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding YELP, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
you just can't have a situation where China can train on the entire internet, and our AI models are hamstrung by needing to contract, negotiate contracts with every single website.
I strongly disagree with the idea that AI getting trained is the same as AI replicating copyright material.
I read that and I thought, this is the peak of these deals. These deals will only go down in terms of dollar value from here. And it actually brought me to this point where I was thinking to myself, is it even realistic to believe that patents and copyrights actually exist in five years?
I will guarantee that this will be the beginning of the deals and the deals will go up from here.
I told you about this. We did a licensing deal with OpenAI, we meaning Beast. They paid us, and they're using it for pre-training. It's quite reasonable.
And then Chachipiti and the New York Times should do a deal. And I predict they will do this, or with another language model that's smart enough to do it
if all they're doing is transforming the work, they're doing positional encoding, and then coming up with their own unique work product, this judge said that that is not a violation of copyright. I completely agree with that.
I philosophically disagree with all of your nonsense on this topic. All three of you are wrong. And I'll tell you why. Number one, if information is out in the open internet, I believe it's accessible and it's viewable. And I view an LLM or a web crawler as basically being a human that's reading and can store information in its brain.
This is lossy compression. It is absolutely... I'm now on your page. I hate to say this, Jason. I agree with you. You were right.
NA
Naval Ravikant
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences
E215 · 2025-02-15
▶ 1:24:20
I'm going to go out even thinner limb and say I largely agree with you. I think it's a bit rich to crawl the open web, hoover up all the data, offer direct substitution for a lot of use cases, because now you start and end with the AI model. It's not even like you link out like Google did. And then you just close off the models for safety reasons. I think if you trained on the open web, your model should be open source.
I have a prediction here. I think this is all going to wind up like the Napster Spotify case. ... I think that there is a non-zero chance, like it might be 5 or 10 percent, that OpenAI is going to lose the New York Times lawsuit and they're going to lose it hard and there could be injunctions. And I think the settlement might be that these language models, especially the closed ones, are going to have to pay some percentage in a negotiated settlement of their revenue, half, two-thirds, to the content holders. And this could make the content industry have a massive, massive uplift and a massive resurgence.
I think it's for three years is the license and they just did this blanket license for every book. They didn't look at yourself. They didn't look at how desirable it was. It was just like a blanket deal. Everybody gets $2,500 bucks per book for three years. And I think I'm going to just do it just to support proper licensing so that people can start going down this path.
It's pretty crystal clear that their content's behind a paywall. And that's how they make money.
RE
Reid Hoffman
oppose ×2
▲ on
🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences
E194 · 2024-08-30
▶ 26:58
we can train these models, like training is like reading. And like reading things is, like when something's available to be read, and you've engaged in the right economic thing for reading it, I think that's a kind of a reasonable, fair use thing.
I think what we will see over time is that rather than have the ability to sue for their likeness, a lot of AI that is like a celebrity, the value of it will arise from the celebrity's endorsement, not actually using the celebrity's features.
What happens in these content cases is they get settled almost every single time. So, the case law doesn't get codified, they just get settled out of court. If you go look at all the Fair Use cases, they almost never go to the mat. And so, this one will just be settled. It'll just be a question at what price.
Using a computer to probabilistically copy something is still copying something.
And by the way, I mean, because it is such an industry-leading company, I think we could end up with some very bad fair use precedents or laws because Scarlett Johansson is so sympathetic as a plaintiff compared to OpenAI. And unless they show us some discovery that proves that they really did hire the voice actor and all the rest of it, I mean, this could lead to some very bad precedents for the industry around fair use.
Well, look, this is the same conversation we've had two or three times where we're gonna need the courts to figure out what fair use is. And depending on what they come up with, it may be the case that Google has to cut them in by doing licensing deals.
And I think that we're going to see a major lawsuit here. Those people who are in those boxes are going to look at the answer here and realize maybe they don't get the click through and that this answer was built on that. And now we're going to have to have a new framework. There's going to need to be, Sacks, a new company that clears this content so that Google can do answers like this.
The music industry is going to consider this opportunity to make Taylor Swift songs their opportunity. It's part of the four part fair use test is, you know, these who gets to capitalize on new innovations for existing art.
What's the difference here and why are you making the case that perhaps artists should be uniquely paid? This is not a sampling situation. The AI is not outputting and it's not storing in the model the actual original song. It's learning structure.
SA
Sam Altman
support ×2
▲ on
🏛️ AI's training data gets a copyright bill - citations, links and licences
E178 · 2024-05-10
▶ 36:38
So I think there's an opt in, opt out in that case, first of all, and then there's an economic model.
The difference is if Google doesn't sue OpenAI, it means copyright is worthless
the models don't actually hold the data that they're trained on. They develop a bunch of synthesized predictors... I'd rather focus on is there copyright infringement in the output? Does the output mimic an original copyrighted source? And if it does, then that's where the infringement should lie, not on the how did you do it