📈 Private equity takes out the busted post-IPO cohort

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E85 (2022-06-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 1:00:40 SUPPORT

“There's going to be a bunch of companies in this position, so look for this as a trend. Peloton, 964 million last quarter in revenue, lost 757 million in the quarter. ... That company is going to get taken out.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E85 (2022-06-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 52:36 SUPPORT

“you have to ask the question, why are these highly sophisticated private equity firms buying it for $10 billion? I think they're going to make a lot of money. ... They are going to slash the hell out of the cost structure.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E85 (2022-06-30) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 41:24 SUPPORT

“At the end of the day, the private equity firms are not trying to make, you know, this $10 billion go to 25 They're trying to make the 2 billion of equity they put in go to three. And there's a lot of ways that two can go to three before 10 goes to 25”

Jason equities w=0.97 · n=105 · E88 (2022-07-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:36:30 SUPPORT

“I think the big thing that's going to happen right now, I'm seeing it all over the place is M&A I think is going to start ticking up just today Amazon acquired One Medical for $3.9 billion”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E103 (2022-11-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 19:02 SUPPORT

“And there's a lot of these distressed mid cap and small cap software companies out there that private equity firms now realize, wow, you don't actually need 50% of the workforce in order to keep the product running and to drive to profitability. And you could see a bit of a flurry of buyout activity as more folks come in and maybe try and mimic the Elon playbook.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E103 (2022-11-05) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 23:33 SUPPORT

“So I think about two-thirds of these companies really have no line of sight to profitability in the next two to three years. And again, if you layer in this cost of capital argument, all of those companies, David, will have to raise money at very egregious terms in order to keep themselves going as a public business, in which case their alternative is to go private in a PE transaction.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E103 (2022-11-05) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 24:26 BRUSH_OFF

“Well, I don't, that's like a very specific question of like how many of them are going to get acquired by PE firms versus going public or going private after being public. That's like a very specific question.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E108 (2022-12-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 51:38 SUPPORT

“And so I think Coupa is like the canary in the coal mine. It is the beginning of what I suspect is a tidal wave of PE sponsored deals in tech companies, largely SaaS but may go into other realms.”

Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E108 (2022-12-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:12:41 SUPPORT

“But look, if you are a founder, if you don't start acting in a more capital efficient way and preserve your cash, your company is ultimately going to be owned by a private equity firm and they are going to make all the money.”

Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E108 (2022-12-16) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 1:13:35 SUPPORT

“The alternative is that the majority of acquisitions made by private equity firms are not actually pure acquisitions. They're bolt on acquisitions, meaning that these are companies that are added to existing platforms that they own.”

Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E125 (2023-04-21) · positioning · strength 2 ▶ 1:05:19 SUPPORT

“Private equity has refined a very powerful toolkit of putting two or three orders of magnitude of the money we put into companies to work on the premise that the glass is actually half empty and what can go wrong and how do we mitigate that risk.”