← pool

🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state

Amazon/MGM is not a content story but a power story: whoever has money and seeks influence buys studios, and this time the buyers are the platforms with the direct consumer relationship. Big Tech gobbles up the remaining libraries and they never trade again.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 52.4 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG AMZN
expression · bullish tech
WRONG
result · return -25.3% · vs SPY -25.0%
2022-05-31
born 2021-05-31 (E34) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEAS ON THE SAME TICKER — the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
AMZN · Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice SHORT WATCH 49.3 ← stronger than this idea (11.1)
AAPL · Personal AI agents put the App Store's 30% take and opaque subscription/retail economics on notice SHORT WATCH 49.3 ← stronger than this idea (11.1)
GOOGL · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay SHORT EMBER 21.2 ← stronger than this idea (11.1)
AAPL · ChatGPT takes Google search share and the market starts pricing the decay SHORT EMBER 21.2 ← stronger than this idea (11.1)
GOOGL · Tort floodgates open on social media SHORT EMBER 20.4 ← stronger than this idea (11.1)
GOOGL · Blue cities ban or license-cap robotaxis SHORT EMBER 20.3 ← stronger than this idea (11.1)
GOOGL · Meta's AI assistant takes ten points of search share from Google SHORT DORMANT 6.4

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks 94 (AMZN) · Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T 61 (GOOGL) · Google wins consumer AI via distribution 58 (GOOGL) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (GOOGL) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (AMZN) · Apple: the AI dark horse via local models 47 (AAPL) · Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) 38 (GOOGL) · Amazon as a long-term compounding hold 27 (AMZN) · Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor 23 (GOOGL) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (GOOGL) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (AMZN) · Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock 9 (GOOGL)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG AMZN (primary play). AMZN fell 25.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -25.3% (the call lost money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -0.3% → vs SPY = -25.3 − (-0.3) = -25.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+
    · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    ▶ WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: AAPL→HIT (+20.4%)

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-31)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG AMZNstock PRIMARY the acquirer in the MGM deal that triggered the thesis
▲ LONG AAPLstock adjacent named as an aggregator that should own content
▲ LONG GOOGLstock adjacent named as an aggregator with the direct audience relationship (YouTube)

Mention log newest first

Chamath
Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E64 (2022-01-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 27:52 SUPPORT
“I still think this Microsoft Activision deal on balance gets done, because if you take the absolute values away from it, the reality is that it's an adjacent part of Microsoft's core business, and there's nothing fundamentally monopolistic about what would happen if you let Microsoft and Activision come together.”
Chamath
Chamath tech 45% · n=84 · E34 (2021-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 56:35 BRUSH_OFF
“This is what I mean. Consolidation in markets like this should tell you it's time to move on and focus on something else. This is a dead industry with no profit.”
Friedberg
Friedberg tech 55% · n=66 · E34 (2021-05-31) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 54:55 OPPOSE
“Except for the few guys that have scale to actually be successful like Disney, right? Disney, maybe HBO to some extent. ... And there may be like there's two to three libraries that are deep enough and strong enough to compete and stand on their own as a tech kind of platform.”
Jason
Jason tech 53% · n=56 · E34 (2021-05-31) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 54:43 SUPPORT
“Eight billion is a rounding error.”
Sacks
Sacks tech 39% · n=53 · E34 (2021-05-31) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 52:56 SUPPORT
“So my big takeaway from Bezos buying MGM and these other, you know, M&A events is it's less about the decline of content, even though there are more and more options that ever have been, and therefore more competition. And it's more about the rising power and wealth and influence of big tech. ... And I think that Big Tech is going to gobble up the rest of these libraries. And that's where they're going to stay.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks 39%
1 scoring event · 45% of moves
+42.0 → net +42.0
Chamath
Chamath 45%
2 scoring events · 30% of moves
+13.7 / -14.2 → net -0.4
Friedberg
Friedberg 55%
1 scoring event · 13% of moves
+0.0 / -12.0 → net -12.0
Jason
Jason 53%
1 scoring event · 11% of moves
+10.4 → net +10.4

⏳ decay drained -29.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E34 2021-05-31 init +42.0 42.0 E34 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3)
E34 2021-05-31 reinforce +10.4 52.4 E34 Jason support x1 (new voice)
E34 2021-05-31 oppose -12.0 40.4 E34 Friedberg opposes x2
E34 2021-05-31 brush_off -14.2 26.3 E34 Chamath brushes off
E35 2021-06-13 decay -1.1 25.2 E35 silent
E36 2021-06-18 decay -1.0 24.2 E36 silent
E37 2021-06-25 decay -1.0 23.3 E37 silent
E38 2021-07-03 decay -0.9 22.3 E38 silent
E39 2021-07-09 decay -0.9 21.4 E39 silent
E40 2021-07-16 decay -0.9 20.6 E40 silent
E41 2021-07-23 decay -0.8 19.8 E41 silent
E42 2021-07-30 decay -0.8 19.0 E42 silent
E43 2021-08-06 decay -0.8 18.2 E43 silent
E44 2021-08-28 decay -0.7 17.5 E44 silent
E45 2021-09-04 decay -0.7 16.8 E45 silent
E46 2021-09-14 decay -0.7 16.1 E46 silent
E47 2021-09-18 decay -0.6 15.5 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 decay -0.6 14.8 E49 silent
E50 2021-10-09 decay -0.6 14.2 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -0.6 13.7 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -0.5 13.1 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -0.5 12.6 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -0.5 12.1 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 decay -0.5 11.6 E55 silent
E56 2021-11-20 decay -0.5 11.2 E56 silent
E57 2021-12-04 decay -0.4 10.7 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay -0.4 10.3 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -0.4 9.9 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 decay -0.4 9.5 E60 silent
E61 2021-12-29 decay -0.4 9.1 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -0.4 8.7 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -0.3 8.4 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 reinforce +13.7 22.1 E64 Chamath support x2 (flipped from brush_off)
E65 2022-01-29 decay -0.9 21.2 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -0.8 20.4 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -0.8 19.6 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -0.8 18.8 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -0.8 18.0 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -0.7 17.3 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -0.7 16.6 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -0.7 16.0 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -0.6 15.3 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 decay -0.6 14.7 E75 silent
E76 2022-04-16 decay -0.6 14.1 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -0.6 13.6 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -0.5 13.0 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -0.5 12.5 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -0.5 12.0 E80 silent
E81 2022-05-23 decay -0.5 11.5 E81 silent
E82 2022-05-24 decay -0.5 11.1 E82 silent