🤖 Big Tech eats Hollywood — the studios' end state
Amazon/MGM is not a content story but a power story: whoever has money and seeks influence buys studios, and this time the buyers are the platforms with the direct consumer relationship. Big Tech gobbles up the remaining libraries and they never trade again.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Enterprise AI sovereignty: workloads leave frontier APIs for private stacks 94 (AMZN) · Anthropic IPO (~Oct 2026) is attractively priced at $1.5-2T 61 (GOOGL) · Google wins consumer AI via distribution 58 (GOOGL) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (GOOGL) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 48 (AMZN) · Apple: the AI dark horse via local models 47 (AAPL) · Frontier AI labs keep durable premium pricing (not commoditized) 38 (GOOGL) · Amazon as a long-term compounding hold 27 (AMZN) · Personal AI agents: Google's data moat wins the form factor 23 (GOOGL) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (GOOGL) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 18 (AMZN) · Willow's error-correction scaling puts encryption on a two-to-five-year clock 9 (GOOGL)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-31 → 2022-05-31 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG AMZN (primary play). AMZN fell 25.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -25.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -0.3% → vs SPY = -25.3 − (-0.3) = -25.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: AAPL→HIT (+20.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-31)
Plays
Mention log newest first
“I still think this Microsoft Activision deal on balance gets done, because if you take the absolute values away from it, the reality is that it's an adjacent part of Microsoft's core business, and there's nothing fundamentally monopolistic about what would happen if you let Microsoft and Activision come together.”
“Except for the few guys that have scale to actually be successful like Disney, right? Disney, maybe HBO to some extent. ... And there may be like there's two to three libraries that are deep enough and strong enough to compete and stand on their own as a tech kind of platform.”
“So my big takeaway from Bezos buying MGM and these other, you know, M&A events is it's less about the decline of content, even though there are more and more options that ever have been, and therefore more competition. And it's more about the rising power and wealth and influence of big tech. ... And I think that Big Tech is going to gobble up the rest of these libraries. And that's where they're going to stay.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E34 2021-05-31 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E34 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E34 2021-05-31 | reinforce | +10.4 | 52.4 | E34 Jason support x1 (new voice) |
| E34 2021-05-31 | oppose | -12.0 | 40.4 | E34 Friedberg opposes x2 |
| E34 2021-05-31 | brush_off | -14.2 | 26.3 | E34 Chamath brushes off |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.6 | 14.2 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | reinforce | +13.7 | 22.1 | E64 Chamath support x2 (flipped from brush_off) |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.8 | 20.4 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.8 | 19.6 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.8 | 18.8 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.8 | 18.0 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.7 | 17.3 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.7 | 16.0 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.6 | 14.7 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.5 | 12.5 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.5 | 11.1 | E82 silent |