📈 Disney keeps politicizing its franchises and keeps flopping

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-01-13 → 2025-01-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT DIS (primary play). DIS rose 17.2% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -17.2% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +24.0% → vs SPY = -17.2 − (+24.0) = -41.2% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: +6.8% — did DIS move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg, Sacks

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks 44%

1 scoring event · 76% of moves

+42.0 → net +42.0

Friedberg 43%

1 scoring event · 24% of moves

+13.1 → net +13.1

⏳ decay drained -47.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one