📈 Airbnb re-rates from tech multiple to consumer cyclical
Chamath's read of Airbnb's six-month drawdown: holders have decided it is not a technology business but a tech-enabled consumer business whose earnings ebb and flow with discretionary spending. No amount of product investment changes that, so the multiple compresses toward travel/consumer-cyclical comps and the stock trades on the consumer-spending cycle rather than product quality.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 29.3 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT ABNB
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -8.3% · α -29.6%
2025-09-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-09-06 → 2025-09-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT ABNB (primary play). ABNB rose 8.3% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -8.3% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +21.3%
→ α = -8.3 − (+21.3) = -29.6%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +12.9% — did ABNB move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-09-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | ABNB | stock | PRIMARY | the named company being re-rated from tech to consumer cyclical |
| ▼ SHORT | BKNG | stock | adjacent | same discretionary travel-spend cycle he says Airbnb now trades on |
| ▼ SHORT | EXPE | stock | adjacent | online travel comp set the multiple compresses toward |
| ▼ SHORT | XLY | etf | adjacent | consumer discretionary complex is the bucket he says Airbnb has been moved into |
Mention log
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E195 (2024-09-06) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 26:03
SUPPORT
“It's telling you that the people that own it have realized that it's less of a technology business and it's more of a cyclical business that ebbs and flows with the ability to spend money on behalf of the consumer.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -24.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E195 2024-09-06 | init | +29.3 | 29.3 | E195 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.84] |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E225 silent |
| E226 2025-05-02 | decay | -0.3 | 8.3 | E226 silent |
| E227 2025-05-09 | decay | -0.3 | 7.9 | E227 silent |
| E228 2025-05-17 | decay | -0.3 | 7.6 | E228 silent |
| E229 2025-05-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.3 | E229 silent |
| E231 2025-06-13 | decay | -0.3 | 7.0 | E231 silent |
| E232 2025-06-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.7 | E232 silent |
| E233 2025-06-28 | decay | -0.3 | 6.5 | E233 silent |
| E234 2025-07-04 | decay | -0.3 | 6.2 | E234 silent |
| E235 2025-07-11 | decay | -0.2 | 6.0 | E235 silent |
| E236 2025-07-19 | decay | -0.2 | 5.7 | E236 silent |
| E237 2025-08-01 | decay | -0.2 | 5.5 | E237 silent |
| E238 2025-08-09 | decay | -0.2 | 5.3 | E238 silent |
| E239 2025-08-15 | decay | -0.2 | 5.1 | E239 silent |
| E240 2025-08-22 | decay | -0.2 | 4.9 | E240 silent |
| E241 2025-08-29 | decay | -0.2 | 4.7 | E241 silent |