📈 Amazon buys One Medical cheap and levers it into a Prime healthcare stack
Amazon's $3.9B One Medical deal buys a busted post-IPO asset at roughly its January price (ONEM went from ~$60 in Feb 2021 to ~$7) and what it actually acquires is a network of doctors who can do telehealth plus a built-out retail footprint. The synergy chain is doctor visit into blood test into prescription fulfilled by Amazon pharmacy into diet delivered by Whole Foods, all locked behind Prime; Friedberg's dated call is that Amazon massively expands the telehealth footprint within a year of closing, on the theory Amazon already owns the customers One Medical was paying ~$1,000 CPA to acquire.
also touching these tickers, same direction: Amazon as a long-term compounding hold 23 (AMZN) · Own AWS, Azure and GCP and nothing else — the clouds capture the AI application dollars 21 (AMZN) · Independent frontier-model labs lose to hyperscaler capital 14 (AMZN)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2022-07-22 → 2023-07-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG AMZN (primary play). AMZN rose 6.2% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +6.2% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +16.3% → α = +6.2 − (+16.3) = -10.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-07-22)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | AMZN | stock | PRIMARY | the acquirer - the target ONEM delists on close in Feb 2023 so it is not usable as a scored play |
Mention log
“Amazon, it makes so much sense for Amazon to expand into built out retail footprints because that business model now gets more and more complete by the day where you become so ingrained and enmeshed in this loop of Amazon services.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -50.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E88 2022-07-22 | init | +36.4 | 36.4 | E88 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.87] |
| E88 2022-07-22 | reinforce | +12.0 | 48.4 | E88 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E88 2022-07-22 | reinforce | +11.3 | 59.7 | E88 Jason support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -2.4 | 57.3 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -2.3 | 55.0 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -2.2 | 52.8 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -2.1 | 50.7 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -2.0 | 48.7 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -1.9 | 46.7 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -1.9 | 44.8 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -1.8 | 43.0 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -1.7 | 41.3 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -1.7 | 39.7 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -1.6 | 38.1 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -1.5 | 36.6 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -1.5 | 35.1 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -1.4 | 33.7 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -1.3 | 31.1 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -1.2 | 29.8 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -1.2 | 28.6 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -1.1 | 27.5 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -1.1 | 26.4 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -1.1 | 25.3 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -1.0 | 24.3 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.9 | 22.4 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.9 | 21.5 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.8 | 18.3 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.7 | 16.2 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.5 | 13.2 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E137 silent |