📈 Tesla's 40% drawdown is mispriced against an on-plan Master Plan
Chamath's sharps-versus-squares read on the Q1 2024 selloff: Master Plan Part Deux has been public since 2016 and Elon has checked essentially every box on it - Model 3, Model Y, the pickup, the heavy-duty truck, and the high-passenger-density urban transport vehicle now being announced as the robotaxi in August - so a ~$2.5B capex miss and a 10% RIF are vicissitudes, not a broken plan. With the stock down more than 40% year to date and market cap off from $750B to $460B, smart capital is buying a dislocation rather than a deterioration, and the same tape that lionized Meta's earnings and dumped on Elon got both reactions backwards. Sacks agrees the visible headwinds - 1.6% Q1 GDP, 5%+ financing costs on car payments - are cyclical and that Chinese low-cost competition is the only genuinely long-term problem.
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: Tesla's second act: AI5 + energy + CyberCab 59 (TSLA)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-04-26 → 2025-04-26 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG TSLA (primary play). TSLA rose 69.3% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +69.3% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +9.7% → vs SPY = +69.3 − (+9.7) = +59.6% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 69.3, vs SPY 59.6)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Jason, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-04-26)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | TSLA | stock | PRIMARY | the mispriced equity being bought into the drawdown |
Mention log newest first
“But I would say that I think both of those things are ultimately cyclical. And what matters is Tesla's products. I would say the only issue they have that's a real long-term issue is just the Chinese competition.”
“that's going to create a buying opportunity because we think it's roughly mispriced. And we think it's mispriced because going back to this plan from 2016, this is all the things that we've been underwriting from $40 billion of market cap to $750, and now we're getting a 40% discount to buy back in.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -76.8 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E176 2024-04-26 | init | +42.0 | 42.0 | E176 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x3) |
| E176 2024-04-26 | reinforce | +13.1 | 55.0 | E176 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -2.2 | 52.8 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -2.1 | 50.7 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -2.0 | 48.7 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -1.9 | 46.8 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -1.9 | 44.9 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -1.8 | 43.1 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | reinforce | +8.5 | 51.6 | E183 Sacks support x2 |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -2.1 | 49.6 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -2.0 | 47.6 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.9 | 45.7 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.8 | 43.8 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.8 | 42.1 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.7 | 40.4 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.6 | 38.8 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.6 | 37.2 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.5 | 35.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.4 | 33.0 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | reinforce | +11.0 | 37.8 | E200 Chamath support x2 |
| E200 2024-10-18 | reinforce | +14.0 | 51.8 | E200 Jason support x2 (new voice) |
| E200 2024-10-18 | reinforce | +10.8 | 62.7 | E200 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -2.5 | 60.2 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -2.4 | 57.8 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -2.3 | 55.4 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -2.2 | 53.2 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -2.1 | 51.1 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -2.0 | 49.1 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -2.0 | 47.1 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.9 | 45.2 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E209 silent |
| E210 2025-01-11 | decay | -1.7 | 41.7 | E210 silent |
| E211 2025-01-18 | decay | -1.7 | 40.0 | E211 silent |
| E212 2025-01-25 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E212 silent |
| E213 2025-01-31 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E213 silent |
| E214 2025-02-07 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E214 silent |
| E215 2025-02-15 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E215 silent |
| E216 2025-02-21 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E216 silent |
| E217 2025-03-01 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E217 silent |
| E218 2025-03-08 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E218 silent |
| E219 2025-03-15 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E219 silent |
| E220 2025-03-22 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E220 silent |
| E221 2025-03-29 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E221 silent |
| E222 2025-04-05 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E222 silent |
| E223 2025-04-11 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E223 silent |
| E224 2025-04-19 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E224 silent |
| E225 2025-04-26 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E225 silent |