S&P 500 benchmark

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Risk-off window: November to February E252 · 2025-11-22 ▶ 23:35

My gosh, this short Bitcoin thing has been a bonanza... Is it below 90? It is, right? It's like 87?... Watch out below.

Brad Gerstner support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Risk-off window: November to February E250 · 2025-11-07 ▶ 39:46

Early in the year... Altimeter was positioned small... By May... we went to kind of extra large positioning and we've been there most of the year. And so now we're back to kind of medium, medium small positioning in the market... There's a pause as we head in over the course of the next couple months.

Chamath support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 Risk-off window: November to February E250 · 2025-11-07 ▶ 6:37

To be clear, we are very much getting into a phase of risk-off... We will be back firmly in risk-on mode in February, is my suspicion... Bitcoin is about to break through 100,000 to the downside, which I think is a psychological barrier that probably has another 5% or 10% more to run.

I don't see that, but if you want to see that, you can, but it will swing back. This country is incredibly resilient, and I have complete faith in that resilience.

Gavin Baker oppose ×2 ▼ on 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:02:05

So they won't work. And I think that'll be a quick, that'll be like a quick end to socialism.

If things take a downturn, then the backlash is going to be a lot stronger than anything that any of us can say about the failures of Zoran Mamdani, because what it's going to be is, look, the rich got richer and we got poorer, and it's going to be a redox of 2007, 2008, but with a much, even further to the left than Obama ever was, and that I'm deeply afraid of.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 🏛️ Socialism goes national in the US and ratchets taxes and spending higher E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 53:24

My prediction will ring fruer than any of us hope. Socialism will sweep over this nation, I fear. And I think it's a cancer.

Otherwise, China is able to sort of climb out the window, which is, I think, what they've done on everything from Nvidia chips to TikTok to their actual tariff rate, which I believe is now lower than the tariff rate we have against Canada.

Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E238 · 2025-08-09 ▶ 1:22:35

I would just say he showed his hand in April. He looked into the abyss and if it is clearly not working, he showed that he will change it.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:10:13

the shock and bore playbook is basically, Trump says something completely outrageous, shocking, everybody goes crazy, the media loses their mind, business leaders lose their mind. ... Trump comes in, sees all the stuff, and then he starts making these micro tweaks. So it's on the finish line, it's in the red zone, five-yard line, Trump comes in, and then he sticks it to them again with three or four extra asks, and then they wrap it up, and that this is becoming really effective.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:15:20

we said at the time that all of that was happening and Larry Summers was on the pod preaching doom, is that all of that was an opening bid. It was all the start to a negotiation. And we had to see where it ended up and that the administration still had to stick the landing. But I got to say based on EU, Japan and South Korea, this is looking really good right now.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:07:02

It's about $2 trillion. It's effectively $2 trillion of stimulus into the US, but without money printing.

Sacks oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E237 · 2025-08-01 ▶ 1:06:40

obviously the 3% number is way ahead of expectations. It's a fantastic number. It just feels like everything is humming on all cylinders here.

Jameson is back now as the US Trade Representative and I'm very optimistic that we're going to see more trade flourish. President Trump knows how to do this. I've been with him in the trade negotiations. He knows exactly how to navigate this.

Jason oppose ×1 ▼ on 🌍 Payroll revisions expose an economy materially weaker than the headline data E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 8:16

There's a lot of spending in there, as we've talked about here, putting that aside, it feels like the economy is in really great shape.

Gavin Baker support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 3:06

I would say for everyone but China. You know, it is, and you know, we're, we've clearly reached some sort of deal with China, you know, rare earths for H20s and MI308Xs.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E236 · 2025-07-19 ▶ 2:44

And ultimately, don't we look at the tariff situation and say, despite the shock and awe of the opening salvo, it's quite a boring position now. It just seems to be reciprocity and reasonable reciprocity at that.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital E234 · 2025-07-04 ▶ 48:45

And so as long as that's the case, I think you're going to continue to have a bid for equities. If all of a sudden the MAG 7 decided to delist and not be American companies, and all of a sudden showed up in the CAC 50 in France, yeah, we'd be in big trouble. But I don't think that's going to happen. And so as long as there's American ingenuity and American supremacy, again, which goes back to the other thing, which is we can't kill these golden geese, nor should we kill the emerging and growing golden goose, which is AI. And as long as those things are the same, there will be a constant bid for American assets.

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🌍 US assets reprice with an emerging-market risk premium E234 · 2025-07-04 ▶ 52:05

In the last 10 years, US treasuries held by foreign holders has declined from 34%. This is a good thing, not a bad thing. I mean, it's good in one context. But my point is people, foreign countries and foreign businesses and foreign investors aren't holding US treasuries as much as they used to.

Chamath oppose ×3 ▼ on 🌍 US assets reprice with an emerging-market risk premium E234 · 2025-07-04 ▶ 46:08

So, I don't know, I think that it's part of the fact that until we run surpluses and or completely eliminate the debt, there will always be a reason to be somewhat short the dollar. But the reality is that a lot of people still want to own these assets more than what they want to own any other asset. And those assets are dollar denominated. And so as long as that continues to hold in the push and pull, it will be a slow bleed, but it's probably manageable.

Jason support ×2 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:26:23

He starts with a bang and then he falls back to a reasonable position that the markets can digest. So you just have to take a 90 day view of everything he's doing and then you'll be fine.

Sacks support ×1 ▲ on 🏛️ Trump's tariff threats are negotiating leverage and get settled down E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:25:06

any time that the media tries to sow doom or spread panic about the Trump administration's policies, that's a good time to buy.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:21:36

I think that if Powell starts an aggressive cutting program, either because he has to, or because he's trying to keep his job, I mean, man, you could see the S&P at 7,000.

Friedberg oppose ×2 ▲ on 🌍 Tariff receipts plus cut savings re-rate the US and pull in global capital E233 · 2025-06-28 ▶ 1:19:51

So one argument here might be that we're actually not necessarily seeing an improvement in the fundamental business environment. We're not seeing record revenue across the board.

Friedberg support ×3 ▼ on 📈 AI adoption disperses the S&P — short the index, own the category killers E232 · 2025-06-21 ▶ 1:19:41

I think it's the first time you could probably argue that you could go short the S&P and pick a couple of winners. ... I do think that this is such a transformative moment that if you really have a sense for what's possible, you could start to see category killers emerge out of the S&P, and it's an opportunity to short the S&P and pick a couple of winners.