+0.0
net board stance
what this means
18.34
+3.2% · close 2026-09-08
+0% / -11% / +27%
1m / 3m / 12m
+22%
vs SPY since 2024-11-08
43%
of 52w range · -22.6% off high
0/1
hit rate as primary · α -35
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on ICLN
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 1 miss over 1 closed window — credit 0.0, average α -34.8. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚡ IRA production credits flip climate-tech unit economics — capital floods in | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -27.5% | -34.8 | 2023-08-20 |
| ⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +63.7% | +42.3 | 2026-03-08 |
| 🏛️ Biden wins reelection on a strong economy | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | HIT | +45.2% | +35.6 | 2025-03-22 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ICLN, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
PH
Phil Deutch
oppose ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E238 · 2025-08-09
▶ 58:24
And so the point of this chart is if we really need all we could eat on energy for artificial intelligence, and if artificial intelligence, the race is the, you know, race for national security and dominance in the world. This is saying we're taking a step backwards on this supply.
Jason
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E237 · 2025-08-01
▶ 28:09
it's cheaper to put in a solar and battery farm than a new coal plant. It is 100%.
Friedberg
oppose ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E237 · 2025-08-01
▶ 28:38
These methane plants are half the cost of solar. They can get stood up in less than two years to generate a gigawatt.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E237 · 2025-08-01
▶ 14:11
we are sort of back to basics almost in a sense where in the absence of power, I think AI is not going to be the thing that we think it can be. So that's going to create an enormous amount of appetite by the federal government to do deals and get players on the field. And that's to me very exciting. So, yeah, I came away really, really risk on, I guess is the best way to say it.
Chamath
oppose ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E234 · 2025-07-04
▶ 22:47
So, I don't know, my perspective is get rid of all the subsidies at this point, create a clean slate, but don't do anything to hinder the production of electricity, because we need literally as much of it as we can get our hands on.
Friedberg
oppose ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E234 · 2025-07-04
▶ 16:23
Now, I will say, from my point of view, I'm not a huge fan of being dependent on government subsidized energy at all. So if the government is having to play a role in funding stuff, there's something really questionable in terms of our sustainability on that energy production source.
Chamath
reversal ×3
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E229 · 2025-05-24
▶ 17:35
You take the financial incentive away and you can't underwrite this thing. What are they going to do? They're just going to stop doing it. So in the absence of electrons, what happens? Prices go up, it's inflationary, and now you'll have to allocate electrons.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E223 · 2025-04-11
▶ 46:53
Inside the IRA, I think that there were two things, and I've said this pretty repeatedly, but I just want to put it on the record again. The ITC credits and the ITC transfer markets for those credits, the tax equity markets, are critical industries in America to support private investment in all kinds of very complicated markets, energy markets being the most important.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
⚡ IRA energy tax credits survive repeal because AI needs the electrons
E218 · 2025-03-08
▶ 30:18
But the other part of the IRA, this narrow part is what it did to reinforce tax incentives and tax equity, which is a $200 billion market that incentivizes that 90% of energy generation. So my point is that when you start to get into the details, when the house, ways and means community has to figure out what part to put back, this is going to be hard because it's like, hold on, if you got the whole thing, now all of a sudden you take 90% of the incremental energy generation incentives out of the market, you don't have enough electrons.
Because I do think that's what's going to allow her to win this election, and she's going to stand up and say, here's why I am not Joe Biden.
I just think that at some point over the next 100 days, that approach is just going to fall apart. She's going to have to do a debate. She's going to have to answer questions. At that point, I think the bloom will come off the rose a little bit here, and you'll see the polls normalize.
And I think if you have a bad economy, like what it looks like going into November, it's going to be very difficult for the Democrats to win the White House.
the once and likely future president came within millimeters, centimeters of being assassinated
I saw so many reactions to the former and probably future president of the United States getting shot
I think the first thing I thought after I saw the video and saw that he was okay and that his ear was bleeding was, that's it, it's over. Trump's won.
Well, no, look, I think that Trump should win regardless, but it's an opportunity for them to reset the race
It's an easy choice for most Americans, and that's why Trump will beat Biden
Which is better than running somebody who has a 30% chance of winning.
What's your plan? And it looks like you're going to win a second term here.
There are people who don't like Trump, and that drives some support for Biden. But if you look at enthusiasm and excitement, it's all on the Trump side.
So you're going to lose the election and Biden's going to get demolished.
I think you make the correct point, which is, you know, I didn't really think about it this way, but you're right, Biden is the D-cell candidate.
They're the D-cell candidate party now. And they just have to flip this thinking. They're going to get demolished. It is going to be a landslide at this point.
And I think that if you were undecided or pro-President Trump, you probably found more reason to support him for all the reasons that Friedberg said.
Anyone who's sitting in the middle as an independent or an undecided, I think it is much more likely that they are going to have sympathy for Donald Trump coming out of this, not admonishment.