◢ ALL-IN ALPHA 2026-11-07

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📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024

What goes up must come down: AI gains broaden out beyond the Mag-7, so the equal-weight S&P beats the cap-weighted index in 2024.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 43.6 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG RSP
expression · bullish equities
HALF
result · return +13.7% · vs SPY -13.3%
2025-01-06
born 2024-01-06 (E160) → window closed

other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints 65 (RSP)

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG RSP (primary play). RSP rose 13.7% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +13.7% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +27.1% → vs SPY = +13.7 − (+27.1) = -13.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+
    ▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all
    · WRONG — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg | opposed: Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-01-06)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG RSPetf PRIMARY equal-weight S&P — the 493-over-Mag7 expression; alpha vs SPY is exactly the spread he described

Mention log newest first

Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E190 (2024-08-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 33:07 OPPOSE
“we've sort of like looked past the problem because of the stock market going up for the last few quarters because of seven companies”
Sacks
Sacks equities 44% · n=96 · E189 (2024-07-26) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 22:22 BRUSH_OFF
“Sure, I just don't want to overreact or over read into one day in the market. I mean, today's up, yesterday was down. These are blips in the grand scheme of things.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities 43% · n=123 · E189 (2024-07-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:29 SUPPORT
“So I think it's just a rebalancing. And as a result of the high concentration of the MAG-7 and the S&P and in the Qs, the indices look like they're coming down.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E189 (2024-07-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:20 SUPPORT
“And so what you actually saw was a huge rotation out of those companies into everything, but those seven names.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:33 SUPPORT
“And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000, right before the dot-com crash.”
Sacks
Sacks equities 44% · n=96 · E183 (2024-06-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:22 OPPOSE
“On the back of like two stocks. I mean, NVIDIA is holding up the whole market.”
Chamath
Chamath equities 42% · n=163 · E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:54 OPPOSE
“There's a massive dispersion. There's seven or eight companies that matter and 500 odd companies that don't matter much”
Sacks
Sacks equities 44% · n=96 · E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 57:12 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“I would bet against the Magnificent Seven... I'm just saying that the S&P 493 are going to catch up a little bit. So I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over the Magnificent Seven... I don't see why those gains should be limited to the Magnificent Seven if AI is going to play such a big role in the economy.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks 44%
3 scoring events · 48% of moves
+40.0 / -23.6 → net +16.4
Chamath
Chamath 42%
4 scoring events · 39% of moves
+27.8 / -24.0 → net +3.8
Friedberg
Friedberg 43%
1 scoring event · 12% of moves
+16.4 → net +16.4

⏳ decay drained -29.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E160 2024-01-06 init +40.0 40.0 E160 born by Sacks (annual_prediction x2)
E161 2024-01-13 decay -1.6 38.4 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -1.5 36.9 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -1.5 35.4 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -1.4 34.0 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -1.4 32.6 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -1.3 31.3 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -1.3 30.1 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -1.2 28.9 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -1.2 27.7 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -1.1 26.6 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -1.1 25.5 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 decay -1.0 24.5 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -1.0 23.5 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 oppose -12.0 11.5 E174 Chamath opposes x2
E175 2024-04-19 decay -0.5 11.1 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -0.4 10.6 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -0.4 10.2 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -0.4 9.8 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -0.4 9.4 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -0.4 9.0 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -0.4 8.7 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -0.3 8.3 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 oppose -8.3 0.0 E183 Sacks opposes x2
E184 2024-06-20 decay · 0.0 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay · 0.0 E185 silent
E186 2024-07-04 decay · 0.0 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 reinforce +15.0 15.0 E187 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose)
E188 2024-07-19 decay -0.6 14.4 E188 silent
E189 2024-07-26 reinforce +12.8 27.2 E189 Chamath support x2
E189 2024-07-26 reinforce +16.4 43.6 E189 Friedberg support x2 (new voice)
E189 2024-07-26 brush_off -15.3 28.3 E189 Sacks brushes off
E190 2024-08-02 oppose -12.0 16.3 E190 Chamath opposes x2
E191 2024-08-09 decay -0.7 15.7 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay -0.6 15.1 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay -0.6 14.5 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay -0.6 13.9 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay -0.6 13.3 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay -0.5 12.8 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay -0.5 12.3 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay -0.5 11.8 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay -0.5 11.3 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 decay -0.5 10.9 E200 silent
E201 2024-10-25 decay -0.4 10.4 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay -0.4 10.0 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay -0.4 9.6 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay -0.4 9.2 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay -0.4 8.9 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -0.4 8.5 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay -0.3 8.2 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay -0.3 7.8 E208 silent
E209 2025-01-04 decay -0.3 7.5 E209 silent