◢ ALL-IN ALPHA research only · never trades · 2026-09-10

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📈 S&P 493 catches up to the Magnificent 7 in 2024

What goes up must come down: AI gains broaden out beyond the Mag-7, so the equal-weight S&P beats the cap-weighted index in 2024.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 38.1 EMBER
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG RSP
expression · bullish equities
PARTIAL
outcome · R +13.7% · α -13.3%
2025-01-06
window closed

also touching these tickers, same direction: The 2026 US boom — 5-6% GDP prints 55 (RSP) · Fed easing + disinflation into 2026 11 (RSP)

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▲ LONG RSP (primary play). RSP rose 13.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +13.7% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +27.1% → α = +13.7 − (+27.1) = -13.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
  4. Rule fired:
    · HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5
    ▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Friedberg | opposed: Chamath

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-01-06)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▲ LONG RSPetf PRIMARY equal-weight S&P — the 493-over-Mag7 expression; alpha vs SPY is exactly the spread he described

Mention log

Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 57:12 SUPPORT · horizon 12mo
“I would bet against the Magnificent Seven... I'm just saying that the S&P 493 are going to catch up a little bit. So I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over the Magnificent Seven... I don't see why those gains should be limited to the Magnificent Seven if AI is going to play such a big role in the economy.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 40:54 OPPOSE
“There's a massive dispersion. There's seven or eight companies that matter and 500 odd companies that don't matter much”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E183 (2024-06-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 1:16:22 OPPOSE
“On the back of like two stocks. I mean, NVIDIA is holding up the whole market.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E187 (2024-07-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 18:33 SUPPORT
“And what's interesting is the spread right now is the most extreme since March of 2000, right before the dot-com crash.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E189 (2024-07-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 19:20 SUPPORT
“And so what you actually saw was a huge rotation out of those companies into everything, but those seven names.”
Friedberg
Friedberg equities w=0.87 · n=120 · E189 (2024-07-26) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 21:29 SUPPORT
“So I think it's just a rebalancing. And as a result of the high concentration of the MAG-7 and the S&P and in the Qs, the indices look like they're coming down.”
Sacks
Sacks equities w=0.89 · n=96 · E189 (2024-07-26) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 22:22 BRUSH_OFF
“Sure, I just don't want to overreact or over read into one day in the market. I mean, today's up, yesterday was down. These are blips in the grand scheme of things.”
Chamath
Chamath equities w=0.84 · n=160 · E190 (2024-08-02) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 33:07 OPPOSE
“we've sort of like looked past the problem because of the stock market going up for the last few quarters because of seven companies”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Sacks
Sacks w=0.89
3 scoring events · 49% of moves
+35.4 / -21.1 → net +14.3
Chamath
Chamath w=0.84
4 scoring events · 38% of moves
+23.6 / -20.1 → net +3.5
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.87
1 scoring event · 13% of moves
+15.0 → net +15.0

⏳ decay drained -26.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E160 2024-01-06 init +35.4 35.4 E160 born by Sacks (annual_prediction x2) [w=0.89]
E161 2024-01-13 decay -1.4 34.0 E161 silent
E162 2024-01-19 decay -1.4 32.6 E162 silent
E163 2024-01-26 decay -1.3 31.3 E163 silent
E164 2024-02-02 decay -1.3 30.1 E164 silent
E165 2024-02-09 decay -1.2 28.9 E165 silent
E166 2024-02-16 decay -1.2 27.7 E166 silent
E167 2024-02-23 decay -1.1 26.6 E167 silent
E168 2024-03-01 decay -1.1 25.5 E168 silent
E169 2024-03-08 decay -1.0 24.5 E169 silent
E170 2024-03-15 decay -1.0 23.5 E170 silent
E171 2024-03-22 decay -0.9 22.6 E171 silent
E172 2024-03-29 decay -0.9 21.7 E172 silent
E173 2024-04-05 decay -0.9 20.8 E173 silent
E174 2024-04-12 oppose -10.1 10.8 E174 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84]
E175 2024-04-19 decay -0.4 10.4 E175 silent
E176 2024-04-26 decay -0.4 9.9 E176 silent
E177 2024-05-03 decay -0.4 9.5 E177 silent
E178 2024-05-10 decay -0.4 9.2 E178 silent
E179 2024-05-17 decay -0.4 8.8 E179 silent
E180 2024-05-24 decay -0.4 8.4 E180 silent
E181 2024-05-31 decay -0.3 8.1 E181 silent
E182 2024-06-07 decay -0.3 7.8 E182 silent
E183 2024-06-14 oppose -7.8 0.0 E183 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89]
E184 2024-06-20 decay · 0.0 E184 silent
E185 2024-06-29 decay · 0.0 E185 silent
E186 2024-07-04 decay · 0.0 E186 silent
E187 2024-07-12 reinforce +12.6 12.6 E187 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=0.84]
E188 2024-07-19 decay -0.5 12.1 E188 silent
E189 2024-07-26 reinforce +11.0 23.1 E189 Chamath support x2 [w=0.84]
E189 2024-07-26 reinforce +15.0 38.1 E189 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.87]
E189 2024-07-26 brush_off -13.3 24.8 E189 Sacks brushes off
E190 2024-08-02 oppose -10.1 14.7 E190 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84]
E191 2024-08-09 decay -0.6 14.1 E191 silent
E192 2024-08-16 decay -0.6 13.6 E192 silent
E193 2024-08-23 decay -0.5 13.0 E193 silent
E194 2024-08-30 decay -0.5 12.5 E194 silent
E195 2024-09-06 decay -0.5 12.0 E195 silent
E196 2024-09-20 decay -0.5 11.5 E196 silent
E197 2024-09-27 decay -0.5 11.1 E197 silent
E198 2024-10-03 decay -0.4 10.6 E198 silent
E199 2024-10-11 decay -0.4 10.2 E199 silent
E200 2024-10-18 decay -0.4 9.8 E200 silent
E201 2024-10-25 decay -0.4 9.4 E201 silent
E202 2024-11-01 decay -0.4 9.0 E202 silent
E203 2024-11-08 decay -0.4 8.7 E203 silent
E204 2024-11-16 decay -0.3 8.3 E204 silent
E205 2024-11-23 decay -0.3 8.0 E205 silent
E206 2024-12-07 decay -0.3 7.7 E206 silent
E207 2024-12-13 decay -0.3 7.4 E207 silent
E208 2024-12-20 decay -0.3 7.1 E208 silent
E209 2025-01-04 decay -0.3 6.8 E209 silent