📈 Space sector is overfunded with one real customer
Investment dollars and company count in commercial space far exceed market demand — NASA and the federal government are essentially the only customers, so the newly public space names are fighting over one contract pool and are not commercially ready.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 20.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT ARKX
expression · bearish equities
RIGHT
result · return +30.8% · vs SPY +39.9%
2022-08-28
born 2021-08-28 (E44) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
ARKX ·
SpaceX post-IPO: multiple ways to win from $1.4T
LONG
GREEN 91.2
← stronger than this idea (3.1)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-08-28 → 2022-08-28 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT ARKX (primary play). ARKX fell 30.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +30.8% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -9.1%
→ vs SPY = +30.8 − (-9.1) = +39.9%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: +21.7% — did ARKX move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 30.8, vs SPY 39.9)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-08-28)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | ARKX | etf | PRIMARY | broadest tradeable expression of the space-sector capital glut |
| ▼ SHORT | RKLB | stock | adjacent | launch company that IPO'd three days before this episode and lives off government contracts |
| ▼ SHORT | SPCE | stock | adjacent | the retail-hyped pure play with no commercial revenue |
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
equities 43% · n=123
· E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:26:25
SUPPORT
“I am concerned about, frankly, the lack of commercial readiness for this industry. I feel like in terms of the hype cycle, we're at that early point where the investment dollars and the number of companies exceeds the market demand. ... the challenge is just it's another product market fit question, right? The market is one customer today.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -16.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E44 2021-08-28 | init | +20.0 | 20.0 | E44 born by Friedberg (sentiment x2) |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.2 | 5.2 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.2 | 4.8 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.6 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.2 | 4.4 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.2 | 4.2 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.2 | 4.1 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.2 | 3.9 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.2 | 3.8 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.1 | 3.6 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.1 | 3.5 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.1 | 3.3 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.1 | 3.2 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.1 | 3.1 | E93 silent |