📈 Long public software, short late-stage private SaaS
Terminal valuations reset in public markets while late-stage private SaaS faces valuation contraction plus 30% stock-comp dilution — long the public tech index against the private cohort. (Only the long leg is tradeable.)
0
CONVICTION
peaked 40.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG IGV
expression · bullish equities
HALF
result · return +28.0% · vs SPY +1.0%
2025-01-06
born 2024-01-06 (E160) → window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it out (ticker view →)
IGV ·
The $3-4T software industrial complex contracts in 2026
SHORT
EMBER 34.3
← stronger than this idea (5.4)
other ideas on the same ticker, same direction: SaaSpocalypse is overdone for compliance-moat enterprise software 24 (IGV)
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG IGV (primary play). IGV rose 28.0% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +28.0% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +27.1% → vs SPY = +28.0 − (+27.1) = +1.0% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-01-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | IGV | etf | PRIMARY | public software index — the long leg; short leg (private SaaS) has no instrument |
Mention log newest first
Chamath
equities 42% · n=163
· E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 53:28
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“I'm going to take the public software index... my short is the private late-stage SaaS companies... long the public tech cycle, short the private late stage tech cycle, expecting a valuation contraction in the latter.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -34.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E160 2024-01-06 | init | +40.0 | 40.0 | E160 born by Chamath (annual_prediction x2) |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.6 | 38.4 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.5 | 36.9 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.5 | 35.4 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.4 | 34.0 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.4 | 32.6 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.3 | 31.3 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.3 | 30.1 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -1.2 | 28.9 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -1.2 | 27.7 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -1.1 | 26.6 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.9 | 22.6 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.9 | 21.7 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.8 | 20.0 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.8 | 19.2 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 17.7 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.7 | 17.0 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.4 | 8.8 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.4 | 8.5 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -0.3 | 7.8 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -0.3 | 7.5 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -0.3 | 7.2 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -0.3 | 6.9 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -0.3 | 6.4 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -0.3 | 6.1 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -0.2 | 5.9 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -0.2 | 5.6 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -0.2 | 5.4 | E209 silent |