-8.5
net board stance
what this means
134.76
-1.5% · close 2026-11-06
-24% / -12% / -54%
1m / 3m / 12m
-77%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
0%
of 52w range · -57.6% off high
2/10
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -79
Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | moved yet? | scored in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🪙 OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk | ▼ SHORT | adjacent ×0.5 | 17.0 | -8.5 | — | 337d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Last mention E292 · silent for 4 episodes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not
Track record on COIN
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 2 hit / 1 partial / 7 miss over 10 closed windows — credit 0.25, average vs SPY -78.9. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding COIN, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
So the absence of evidence suggests that maybe there were some pretty major breakthroughs made in cryptography. And then there were a number of people that posted that cryptographic wallets with public keys are now very seriously at risk. So there's a bit of a panic under way in the crypto community about what do we do now? And if this ends up having a set of mathematical solves for number factorization that could lead to breaking public key cryptography before quantum computers come around, which is what everyone assumed would be the thing that would break public key cryptography, then we have a real problem.
But now consumers will have the additional protection and confidence to know that all these entities have been audited, they've passed these audits, and they're regulated entities under US law. And that creates confidence for the market, and it's good for everybody. And it will spread the adoption of this stablecoin product.
In fact, the chairman of the Senate Bank Committee, Tim Scott, has said that he wants to finish with the market structure legislation by the end of September. So if all goes well, then we could be looking at a second bill signing in, say, October.
But Genius is unique because it really updates the payment rails inside of our current financial system. I mean, the payment rails have been archaic, and I've likened it to the fact of the ways in which we've communicated have changed quite dramatically over the course of the last several decades. The ways in which we move money really haven't, and we have the technology there in blockchain technology. So what we're doing here is we're fixing the plumbing of our financial system
And to pivot to market structure really briefly, this provides the rules of the road for the exchanges, the brokers, everyone in the space. They desperately need it so that we can break down the wall between traditional financial institutions and these digital asset players. I think that's well underway. Obviously, getting a vote as strong as they did in the House is indicative of what can happen in the Senate.
now those folks who are running away with the industry, Thomas, now they have to compete with people like Jeremy O'Leary and Circle, which are totally buttoned up here in the United States and it levels the playing field. So it's an example of actually good regulation bringing this opportunity back on shore and taking it out of the gray area.
we had this Genius Act, which is the stablecoin bill passed the Senate with 68 votes, got 18 Democrats, they came on board. ... And now we have this first major legislative win. And I would expect the House will act in the next few weeks on this, and then the president will have a bill he can sign.
There is a bill that passed the last Congress in the House, but Biden basically, he didn't veto it, but he basically, he and the Democrats stopped in the Senate, the Democrats did. It was called FIT 21 And it was authored by French Hill, who's now the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. So we expect that he will be introducing a new version of his bill, probably in the next few weeks. I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying this. I think people expect it. And that's going to provide the framework for market structure.
So we have the reserve and we have the stockpile. So the reserve is just Bitcoin. The goal is long-term preservation. Think of it as like a digital Fort Knox for digital gold. We want to put the digital gold in there. We want to keep it secure. We never want to sell it.
I do think Stripe's main business could be, if we're sitting here in five years, Chamath, could be sitting on $300 billion and getting whatever it is, three, four, five percent on some coupon, right? They could be making $10, $20 billion in pure profit if they have a stable coin out there that gets widely adopted.
Second is I go back to what I've been saying for a while now, but the rise of these stable coins is really interesting. The stable coin infrastructure globally, the push for a bunch of these national governments to embrace them inside of India, inside of Brazil. Slowly, it's happening inside of the United States.
I think stablecoins are going to be a big part of the solution. I actually don't think that's going to supplant all the consumer-facing networks. I think we're going to see consumer-facing networks built upon and substantially leverage these things.
Yeah, that is the huge win for allowing stable coins and making them legal, giving them rails
I think the interesting use of stable coins is cross-border, is outside the US. I mean, the big use case that's taking off right now is consumers in other countries seeking to hold dollars.
Card programs are not actually big profit pools for most of the major banks... And maybe other points in that space are viable, but it is a set of trade-offs, and it's not as simple as this enormous rent extraction happening.
Is there a moment guys where is it a regulatory event where you'll say the Visa Mastercard duopoly can get challenged?
Stable coins are finally happening and they're really useful... Just stable coins are I think the first really big payments use case. And I think it's finally coming because the tech is good enough.
So the question, I think, after stable coins, which feels like a layup and a great place to start, that'll be a great early win. And it just makes people I guess that would just reinforce the dollar supremacy, right? If it's tied to the dollar, so that's good for America.
The other area is stable coins. And Senator Haggerty, he's on the banking committee. He just released a stable coin bill. There's counterparts in the House. And what the four chairmen indicated is actually they're going to take up stable coins first and then market structure will follow very quickly. So I think we could see a stable coin bill pass Congress in the next several months.
This was basically a statement of commitment from the chairs of the four committees that we're going to get legislation done this year, maybe in the next six months. I mean, that's really the goal. And we've never had that before. So that is pretty monumental.
The main thing it does is it forms an internal working group with the goal of making the US the world leader in crypto. ... And the members of this working group are going to be, there's me, there's the head of the SEC, the Secretary of the Treasury, and all the agencies and departments that have an interest in crypto.
I mean, I talked about this at the beginning of the year as one of my predictions, but I do think that the United States stable coin rails will be hugely disruptive and value added.
The biggest business winner of 2025 are going to be dollar-denominated stablecoins... $8.5 trillion of transaction volume — more than double Visa's over the same period... we're going to finally attack the duopoly of Visa and MasterCard... stablecoins could quadruple or quintuple by the end of 25.
But there's like, I don't think you could get 10 crypto people to agree on how you regulate that second category because some people believe I should be able to issue an NFT on anything and I should be able to trade that.
But anyways, the point is, if Sacks can really push the adoption of stable coins, number one, and then number two, is to incentivize much, much cheaper transactional rails, then I think he can go to Bitcoin and these other more long-tail crypto projects off of a back of momentum.