🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China
Chamath's disclosed positioning: he is putting real money into places that control natural resources nobody has properly mapped — India above all, where geological survey coverage is naive relative to what's there, plus Indonesia, Australia and parts of Africa. Governments in those places are sophisticated enough to price full employment into their cost of capital and accept a longer payback to keep processing at home rather than shipping inputs to China, so the raw-material rents move out of China's orbit even before energy costs are considered.
also touching these tickers, same direction: Apple relocates US-bound iPhone assembly to India on the stated 18-month timeline 8 (INDA)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG INDA (primary play). INDA rose 16.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +16.4% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +23.7% → α = +16.4 − (+23.7) = -7.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5▶ PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a PARTIAL earn 0.5 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: EWA→MISS (-0.7%); PICK→MISS (-10.9%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-01-20)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | INDA | etf | PRIMARY | India is the specific geography he names as most mispriced and where he says he is deploying |
| ▲ LONG | EWA | etf | adjacent | Australia is his named example of a government trading a longer payback for domestic jobs |
| ▲ LONG | PICK | etf | adjacent | global metals and mining — the resource rents themselves |
Mention log
“I am investing a lot of money in those places that control the natural resources that are poorly understood, meaning, there are places like India where our geological survey capacity is relatively naive.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -28.4 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E112 2023-01-20 | init | +28.8 | 28.8 | E112 born by Chamath (positioning x3) [w=0.80] |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -1.2 | 27.6 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.5 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -1.1 | 25.5 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -1.0 | 24.5 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -1.0 | 23.5 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.9 | 22.5 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.9 | 21.6 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.9 | 20.8 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.8 | 19.9 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.1 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.8 | 18.4 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.7 | 17.6 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.7 | 16.9 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.7 | 16.3 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.7 | 15.6 | E129 silent |
| E130 2023-05-26 | decay | -0.6 | 15.0 | E130 silent |
| E131 2023-06-02 | decay | -0.6 | 14.4 | E131 silent |
| E132 2023-06-10 | decay | -0.6 | 13.8 | E132 silent |
| E133 2023-06-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.3 | E133 silent |
| E134 2023-06-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.7 | E134 silent |
| E135 2023-07-01 | decay | -0.5 | 12.2 | E135 silent |
| E136 2023-07-09 | decay | -0.5 | 11.7 | E136 silent |
| E137 2023-07-14 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E137 silent |
| E139 2023-07-27 | decay | -0.5 | 10.8 | E139 silent |
| E140 2023-08-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.4 | E140 silent |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -0.4 | 10.0 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -0.4 | 9.6 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -0.4 | 9.2 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | reinforce | +10.9 | 20.1 | E144 Chamath support x2 [w=0.80] |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.3 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.5 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -0.7 | 17.8 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -0.7 | 17.1 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -0.7 | 16.4 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -0.7 | 15.7 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -0.6 | 15.1 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.5 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -0.6 | 13.9 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.8 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.3 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.8 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -0.5 | 11.3 | E162 silent |