🛢️ Under-surveyed resource geographies reprice as supply chains route around China

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2023-01-20 → 2024-01-20 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▲ LONG INDA (primary play). INDA rose 16.4% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +16.4% (the call made money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +23.7% → vs SPY = +16.4 − (+23.7) = -7.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   ▶ HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   · WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a HALF earn 0.5 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath | proxy-sensitive: EWA→MISS (-0.7%); PICK→MISS (-10.9%)

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath 40%

2 scoring events · 100% of moves

+49.3 → net +49.3

⏳ decay drained -35.3 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one