+0.0
net board stance
what this means
64.28
-1.7% · close 2026-11-06
+8% / -0% / +14%
1m / 3m / 12m
-2%
vs SPY since 2025-08-01
85%
of 52w range · -3.0% off high
0/3
hit rate as primary · vs SPY -40
Where All-In Alpha stands — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the
conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes
where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence.
Last mention E211 · silent for 84 episodes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on KIE
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 3 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.0, average vs SPY -40.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | result | return | vs SPY | scored |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season drives catastrophe losses | ▼ SHORT | primary | WRONG | -20.6% | -35.1 | 2024-12-07 |
| 📈 California's suppressed insurance rates break the market and land on the taxpayer | ▼ SHORT | primary | WRONG | -11.3% | -32.1 | 2026-01-11 |
| 📈 Record Atlantic sea-surface temperatures drive the biggest hurricane season ever | ▼ SHORT | primary | WRONG | -27.7% | -54.1 | 2024-07-14 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding KIE, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
Well, California has got, at this point, price controls or a mechanism for controlling the change in price on insurance, on housing services. And now they've got this non-solicitation rule. All three, I think, are very challenging to, I think, an appropriate market recovery. ... But I think it's going to be one of the biggest burdens going forward and it could actually lead to a pretty significant effect in long-term housing prices in California. Because of the way that the insurance market is structured and regulated in California.
They're driving real estate value up because they're not allowing the cost of insurance of that real estate to naturally float. And so by driving real estate values up, the economy looks good, they make property taxes, income comes in, but at the end of the day, the bill is going to come due. And in the case of Florida and in the case of California, either the state government or the federal government is going to step in and pay the difference.
And so the free market solution is the only solution. If you look at I have an investment in a company called Kin Insurance, and they specialize in direct to consumer insurance for areas that are plagued with natural disasters... So you're not allowed to use a weather model to price in, you know, your decision making for insurance in this state. And that just doesn't make a lot of sense.
But to the question of who is responsible, it is economically going to make no sense to rebuild unless you can get that insurance. It is a coveted place to live. But because of the construction costs have gone absolutely parabolic in California, because of regulations, you're talking about $14 million in income to build a $7 million house.
So the individual homeowner is not going to be in a position to rebuild. I think that the liabilities of the insurance claims are going to be so massive that the state is going to look to the federal government to build them out.
if you only have a $17 billion re-insurance fund and there's 50 billion of damage, somebody's going to have to come in and cover the gap. And if it's the insurance companies, expect your insurance premiums to double or triple.
And we're now looking at one-in-100-year events happening every two to three years in the United States with the hurricane activity that we've been seeing.
we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October timeframe, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic and they will find their way towards the continental US and Mexico
When an event like this happens, those reinsurance markets take a loss and the loss causes them to raise rates significantly ... the insurance companies pass those rates on to consumers and to property developers and to the people that have mortgages
we could talk about the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic that's likely going to drive the biggest hurricane season we've ever seen this coming season