+0.0
net board stance
what this means
14.21
-2.8% · close 2026-09-08
+3% / -4% / +27%
1m / 3m / 12m
-62%
vs SPY since 2023-06-24
52%
of 52w range · -17.6% off high
0/2
hit rate as primary · α -31
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 58 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on F
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 1 partial / 1 miss over 2 closed windows — credit 0.25, average α -31.4. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 The UAW deal is existential for the unionized US automakers | ▼ SHORT | primary | PARTIAL | +6.2% | -27.6 | 2024-09-22 |
| ⚡ Federal loan-office money onshores the EV battery supply chain | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -7.5% | -35.1 | 2024-06-24 |
| 📈 Elon's brand backlash caps Tesla's EV share near 30-40% | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +24.3% | -3.3 | 2024-06-24 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding F, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
They work, I looked it up, 58 to 64 hours a week, factory workers. The US factory workers want to work 32 hours a week. ... I mean, they're just going to move these factories to Mexico or
the auto companies are facing what you'd expect to be reduced demand because no one can afford a car payment at these higher interest rates, the unions are going on strike demanding
I think that the labor deal is an existential risk to the unionized auto industry in America. ... If the deal as announced happens and you sensitize Stellantis, GM and Ford's P&L to these new terms ... it's going to be very difficult for the established auto industry to survive
But then Tesla also made the chess move of lowering their prices and having record sales. So their margin went down, but their sales went up.
And so they're actually interfering in a free market where Tesla is the big winner because they took a huge risk and created a product people wanted.
This specific thing is more because of the bureaucracy of the government not allowing these credits to basically work across all different kinds of cars.
I mean, the administration just gave all these subsidies and credits to big companies like Ford and GE to make EVs, but no one wants those cars.
Look, we're friends with Elon, but we should acknowledge, there's a large number of people that are frankly a little bit turned off by him. And they've been very clear that they want an alternative to Tesla because they don't want to buy Tesla because they don't necessarily prefer him as a brand ambassador for their car. And the reality of life is that even if you're like maximally incredible, unless you find some clever way of creating a monopoly in which case you can be a douche or evil, you're only ever going to capture 30 plus 40 percent maybe of a market. Coke, Pepsi is a good example.
Jobs, energy independence and less dependency on autocratic nations.
So Elon was basically a fluke. I mean, you get like a once in a generation entrepreneur who happened to be working on this EV problem, and he got that loan. If you're to take Elon out of that government portfolio, it all looks like Solyndra. So the question is, like, what is this portfolio going to look like? Is there really going to be another Elon in there? Because if not, there's going to be a lot of Solyndras.
Listen, while generally against industrial policy, I come down on Chamath's side. I think this is a once in a generation opportunity to reduce our national security risk profile and to achieve what is really a national security imperative, which is energy independence. It's not going to happen just according to the invisible hand of the market.
It's us using our balance sheet to make sure that we get to energy independence. So this is actually a perfect role for government. It's shaping incentives so that capitalism can do its job. What this does for Ford is Ford has a partnership with SK. And so SK has a lot of capability in Korea, but they can bring that know-how now domestically onshore to the United States. You'll be hiring thousands of people, you'll be building battery factories. Ford needs batteries. Their forecast is they'll be selling two and a half million electric vehicles by 2026, 2027 So whatever Ford does, you can expect GM will also do.