+0.0
net board stance
what this means
176.34
-3.1% · close 2026-09-08
-1% / +34% / +42%
1m / 3m / 12m
+0%
vs SPY since 2025-03-22
82%
of 52w range · -7.4% off high
0/3
hit rate as primary · α -24
Where we stand — 0 live ideas
No active idea holds this ticker. Anything below is history.
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
Track record on ABNB
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 0 hit / 0 partial / 3 miss over 3 closed windows — credit 0.0, average α -24.1. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 Gig/supply platforms win 2023 as unemployment gets sticky | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +118.1% | +95.7 | 2024-01-06 |
| 🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | PARTIAL | +21.3% | -1.1 | 2026-07-11 |
| 📈 Airbnb beats the airlines as a travel spread | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -52.0% | -33.5 | 2022-11-06 |
| 📈 Asset-light domestic services platforms are the tariff-immune trade | ▲ LONG | adjacent | MISS | -10.9% | -39.5 | 2026-05-02 |
| 📈 Airbnb re-rates from tech multiple to consumer cyclical | ▼ SHORT | primary | MISS | -8.3% | -29.6 | 2025-09-06 |
| 📈 Take-rate decay caps the GTV marketplaces — model Instacart down, not up | ▼ SHORT | adjacent | MISS | -40.5% | -74.3 | 2024-09-22 |
| 📈 Post-vaccine travel demand blows the roof off | ▲ LONG | primary | MISS | -2.2% | -9.1 | 2022-04-17 |
| 📈 Consumer comfort services (DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber) best asset of 2024 | ▲ LONG | adjacent | HIT | +77.7% | +50.6 | 2025-01-06 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding ABNB, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
TR
Travis Kalanick
support ×2
▼ on
🤖 Agents replace the browse-and-click layer and disintermediate consumer apps
E235 · 2025-07-11
▶ 50:31
I do know that every consumer software CEO that has an app in the app store is trippin. They're trippin right now. And I mean big boys. I mean guys with real stuff.
The paradigm shift is so profound that the idea that you would visit a web page goes away, and you're just in a chat.
When you do the random sprawl, I think it doesn't work, but I just want to say a browser is the dumbest thing to build in 2025 Because in a world of agents, what is a browser? It's a glorified markup reader. It's like handling HTML. It's handling CSS and JavaScript.
All that matters to me is that Uber is the anti-tariff stock. It just does great. It's not impacted by tariffs. So here we go.
It's telling you that the people that own it have realized that it's less of a technology business and it's more of a cyclical business that ebbs and flows with the ability to spend money on behalf of the consumer.
To support your point and what Chamath was messaging on our chat, look at Walmart. Stocks up 7% today. Because they offer lower priced solutions to consumers. And Dollar General and Dollar Tree are rallying as well.
And I think more and more consumers are just saying that this is a luxury good. I'm looking to cut costs.
Consumers are definitely weakening on the low end, Airbnb and Amazon are example of bargain hunting, people who are looking for discounts, who want to save money with those services.
Airbnb stock went down 15% in one day on soft demand. And what's driving all of this is consumer weakness, or at least fear of consumer weakness.
but like Airbnb, where you think all these young people are running around, yoloing whatever cash they have, Airbnb had a massive warning on demand.
I think that when you see a broad-based set of revenue misses, that will kind of mean that the consumer is really under pressure. I still think that that's more in the fall, but we're headed in that direction.
And what's interesting is that we have finally burned through, and this is what this picture shows, all of the money that folks had in their bank accounts.
we are now really in the belt-tightening phase of this kind of economic process. So I think that the next probably six to nine months are more of these kinds of things, where folks realize that the amount of discretionary income that people had is less
And I think that's where like these super apps are doing really well or Airbnb adding, you know, some inventory in a new city that they unlock
I'm going to go with consumer comfort services... small luxuries like DoorDash, Airbnb, Uber... And I'm talking my book in two out of those three, which I own shares in... consumers are going to keep treating themselves.
for these businesses that drive huge GTVs, gross transaction values, is I think most people, when they try to find what they're worth, are very sensitive to the take rate ... take rate tends to decay. So said in, you know, in grocery land, I think it's because Walmart and Amazon will try to do it for much, much cheaper ... I think that you have to model the health of the business with a declining take rate and growing share.
I think of all the three businesses, Dash probably has the biggest upside ... I don't own any of these three stocks. I'm just saying business model quality, Dash seems infinitely scalable.
I think the door dashes, Airbnbs, Ubers, Etsy's of the world who need entrepreneurs, they need workers, they need supply. They've always been supply constrained. As unemployment becomes, let's call it what it is, sticky, you're going to see a lot more people participating in gig platforms or entrepreneurial platforms that enable them to make money. So I think they will be huge beneficiaries, especially if they continue to lay off employees like door dash and Airbnb did to right size their businesses.
Yeah, but JK let's just be clear. Airbnb is still down almost 75% off its high.
I mean, look at Airbnb as an example. I mean, they did this ginormous riff during COVID because they had no choice. I mean, their revenue went essentially to zero. And now the business is incredibly strong. It's throwing off massive amounts of free cash flow. And the stock market seems to really love what Airbnb has done.
You're talking about smaller, rinky dink ideas. ... No, that's a stupid idea, and I'll tell you why. If you're going to put these things on, go to where the deepest liquid markets are, because those are the safest. ... They're completely different businesses with completely different motivations, with different capital pools, with different people that own the stock. There's no point trying to get cute on these things.
I just came up with one. What about Airbnb versus the airlines? ... Well, tell me why Airbnb, which is an incredible margin business that's incredibly well run and growing, versus airlines, which are horribly run, and low margin, why wouldn't that be a good spread trade?
Chesky went on CNBC this morning and basically said they are battening down all the hatches because there's no... The demand for travel is literally going to blow the roof off the building.