🤖 LK-99 is a diamagnet, not a room-temperature superconductor
Chamath's directional call on the LK-99 claim two weeks into the global replication frenzy: the material is diamagnetic rather than superconducting, so it ends up as one more entry on the long list of near-miss materials rather than a room-temperature superconductor. Sacks concurs on the skeptical side ('wake me up when you know it's real') and Friedberg endorses the ~30% prediction-market handicap, noting one Chinese lab needed 8,000 samples to get zero resistance and only at -100C. The counter-case in the room is that five independent simulation labs produced confirmatory electron-pathway models, so the science-corner optimism is about the new search space this opens, not about LK-99 itself.
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2023-08-04 → 2024-08-04 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT AMSC (primary play). AMSC rose 107.8% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -107.8% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +20.9%
→ vs SPY = -107.8 − (+20.9) = -128.7%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
Direction-only read: -86.8% — did AMSC move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all▶ WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2023-08-04)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | AMSC | stock | PRIMARY | only listed pure-play superconductor name; it popped on the LK-99 news flow, so it is the closest liquid expression of the hype deflating. LOOSE PROXY — AMSC's grid/wind order book drives it far more than superconductor science, so a 12-month score on this symbol is noisy and can invert the verdict on the underlying call |
Mention log newest first
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -49.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E140 2023-08-04 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E140 born by Chamath (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E140 2023-08-04 | reinforce | +11.7 | 46.7 | E140 Friedberg support x1 (new voice) |
| E140 2023-08-04 | reinforce | +12.0 | 58.7 | E140 Sacks support x2 (new voice) |
| E141 2023-08-11 | decay | -2.3 | 56.3 | E141 silent |
| E142 2023-08-18 | decay | -2.3 | 54.1 | E142 silent |
| E143 2023-08-25 | decay | -2.2 | 51.9 | E143 silent |
| E144 2023-09-01 | decay | -2.1 | 49.9 | E144 silent |
| E146 2023-09-22 | decay | -2.0 | 47.9 | E146 silent |
| E147 2023-09-29 | decay | -1.9 | 45.9 | E147 silent |
| E148 2023-10-07 | decay | -1.8 | 44.1 | E148 silent |
| E149 2023-10-13 | decay | -1.8 | 42.3 | E149 silent |
| E150 2023-10-20 | decay | -1.7 | 40.6 | E150 silent |
| E151 2023-10-27 | decay | -1.6 | 39.0 | E151 silent |
| E152 2023-11-03 | decay | -1.6 | 37.5 | E152 silent |
| E156 2023-12-08 | decay | -1.5 | 36.0 | E156 silent |
| E157 2023-12-16 | decay | -1.4 | 34.5 | E157 silent |
| E158 2023-12-23 | decay | -1.4 | 33.1 | E158 silent |
| E159 2023-12-29 | decay | -1.3 | 31.8 | E159 silent |
| E160 2024-01-06 | decay | -1.3 | 30.5 | E160 silent |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.2 | 29.3 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.1 | E162 silent |
| E163 2024-01-26 | decay | -1.1 | 27.0 | E163 silent |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -1.1 | 25.9 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | decay | -1.0 | 24.9 | E165 silent |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -1.0 | 23.9 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.0 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.0 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -0.9 | 21.2 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -0.8 | 20.3 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | decay | -0.8 | 19.5 | E171 silent |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -0.8 | 18.7 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -0.7 | 18.0 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E174 silent |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -0.7 | 16.6 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -0.7 | 15.9 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -0.6 | 15.3 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.1 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -0.6 | 13.5 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -0.5 | 13.0 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.5 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.6 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -0.4 | 9.0 | E190 silent |