📈 Record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season drives catastrophe losses
Friedberg calls for record Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in the August-October 2024 window, pushing an unusually large number of major hurricanes into the continental US and Mexico. The market read-through is catastrophe losses at the P&C insurers and reinsurers writing Gulf and Atlantic coastal risk.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 44.5 EMBER
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT KIE
expression · bearish equities
MISS
outcome · R -20.6% · α -35.1%
2024-12-07
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-06-07 → 2024-12-07 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT KIE (primary play). KIE rose 20.6% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -20.6% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.5%
→ α = -20.6 − (+14.5) = -35.1%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: -6.0% — did KIE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-06-07)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | KIE | etf | PRIMARY | P&C insurance ETF — the direct carrier of US coastal catastrophe losses |
| ▼ SHORT | RNR | stock | adjacent | reinsurer with heavy Atlantic property-cat exposure |
| ▼ SHORT | UVE | stock | adjacent | Florida-concentrated homeowners insurer, highest beta to a landfall season |
Mention log
Friedberg
equities w=0.87 · n=120
· E182 (2024-06-07) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:11:48
SUPPORT
· horizon 6mo
“we will see record sea surface temperatures in the August to October timeframe, which will almost certainly push massive hurricane events out of the Atlantic and they will find their way towards the continental US and Mexico”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E199 (2024-10-11) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 20:06
SUPPORT
“if you only have a $17 billion re-insurance fund and there's 50 billion of damage, somebody's going to have to come in and cover the gap. And if it's the insurance companies, expect your insurance premiums to double or triple.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -28.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E182 2024-06-07 | init | +36.4 | 36.4 | E182 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x3) [w=0.87] |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -1.5 | 34.9 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.4 | 33.5 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.3 | 32.2 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.3 | 30.9 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.0 | 23.2 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -0.8 | 19.7 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -0.8 | 18.9 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | reinforce | +12.6 | 31.6 | E199 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.87] |
| E199 2024-10-11 | reinforce | +12.9 | 44.5 | E199 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.8 | 42.7 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.7 | 41.0 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | decay | -1.6 | 39.4 | E202 silent |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -1.6 | 37.8 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -1.5 | 36.3 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -1.5 | 34.8 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -1.4 | 33.4 | E206 silent |