📈 Record 2024 Atlantic hurricane season drives catastrophe losses

⚖ Why this result

fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set

1. Window: 2024-06-07 → 2024-12-07 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
2. The call: ▼ SHORT KIE (primary play). KIE rose 20.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = -20.6% (the call lost money).
3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +14.5% → vs SPY = -20.6 − (+14.5) = -35.1% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
   Direction-only read: -6.0% — did KIE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
4. Rule fired:
   · RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+

   · HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all

   ▶ WRONG — everything else
5. Credit: supporters of a WRONG earn 0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Chamath, Friedberg

each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Friedberg 43%

2 scoring events · 80% of moves

+56.1 → net +56.1

Chamath 42%

1 scoring event · 20% of moves

+14.4 → net +14.4

⏳ decay drained -32.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one