+44.9
net board stance
what this means
1019.55
+0.3% · close 2026-09-08
+16% / +9% / +677%
1m / 3m / 12m
+900%
vs SPY since 2025-01-04
82%
of 52w range · -16.0% off high
1/1
hit rate as primary · α +203
Where we stand — 1 live idea
| idea | call | play | conviction | contributes | flag | eval in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📈 DRAM/HBM: the bottleneck that matters | ▲ LONG | primary | 44.9 | +44.9 | — | 472d |
Where the winds are blowing
NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 58 EPISODES —
rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. Replayed from
score_events; an idea counts from birth until its window closes.
PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the
talk lead the tape or follow it?
Who's pushing which way
each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × the idea's direction × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means
What resolves next
kill dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored verdict on that date, whether we like it or not
Track record on MU
As a PRIMARY play the besties are 1 hit / 0 partial / 0 miss over 1 closed window — credit 1.0, average α +202.7. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.
| idea | call | play | verdict | R | α | closed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset | ▲ LONG | primary | HIT | +218.8% | +202.7 | 2026-01-04 |
The tape — what was actually said
every capture on any idea holding MU, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode
memory capacity and bandwidth are foundational to the performance of every AI model. ... this bottleneck is going to be with us for a while. ... the floor pricing in these new contracts is ahead of prior cycle peaks from a gross margin perspective. ... DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40 percent of all hyperscaler capex next year.
Chamath
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset
E246 · 2025-10-10
▶ 50:39
When you look at the HBM market... AMD's next architecture actually needs to sit on top of HBM... the people that then control that supply, SK Hynix and Samsung, will have leverage... [Sam is] buying forward capacity on HBM because now he can allocate that share.
Gavin Baker
support ×1
▲ on
🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset
E221 · 2025-03-29
▶ 11:07
The price of memory, DRAM, goes up every day. So we're not overbuilt today.
Gavin Baker
support ×2
▲ on
🤖 High-bandwidth memory makers are 2025's best asset
E209 · 2025-01-04
▶ 1:14:09
The companies that make high bandwidth memory... HBM is a bigger part of NVIDIA's COGS on GPUs than Taiwan Semi is. Today there's two companies that can make it, Hynix and Micron... it's been sold out for the last two years. So high bandwidth memory would be my pick.