🏦 Regional banks still sick — Fed must extend BTFP
Regional bank balance sheets can't survive without continued Fed liquidity (BTFP replacement/extension) given impaired CRE portfolios and an inverted curve — the fragility persists through 2024.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 71.3 GREEN
EMBER
band
▼ SHORT KRE
expression · bearish rates
MISS
outcome · R -19.7% · α -46.8%
2025-01-06
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2024-01-06 → 2025-01-06 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT KRE (primary play). KRE rose 19.7% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -19.7% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +27.1%
→ α = -19.7 − (+27.1) = -46.8%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +7.3% — did KRE move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call was right about direction relative to the index but still cost money versus holding it.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Friedberg, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2024-01-06)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | KRE | etf | PRIMARY | regional banks ETF — the named fragile cohort |
Mention log
Sacks
rates w=1.08 · n=12
· E160 (2024-01-06) · annual_prediction · strength 2
▶ 38:26
SUPPORT
· horizon 12mo
“I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity [BTFP]... regional banks are still in pretty bad shape with impaired commercial debt portfolios... they need this liquidity as long as the yield curve remains inverted.”
Sacks
rates w=1.08 · n=12
· E165 (2024-02-09) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:16:47
SUPPORT
“So I would say that there's a huge amount of equity that's been written off. But in addition to that, there's a lot of debt holders who are in trouble too. And that debt is held by regional banks. So these commercial loan portfolios are significantly impaired. That's what we saw with Community Bank of New York is that their stock cratered when they reported higher than expected losses in their commercial real estate portfolio.”
Friedberg
rates w=0.79 · n=14
· E165 (2024-02-09) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 1:12:28
SUPPORT
“when half of that debt is held by banks and thrifts that, as we've talked about, have such a close ratio to deposits that you can actually see many banks become technically insolvent if the debt starts to default”
Sacks
rates w=1.08 · n=12
· E171 (2024-03-22) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 1:06:41
SUPPORT
“they're hoping that rates will come down fast enough and occupancy rates will go up fast enough that no one has to foreclose. But if rates don't come down, then you have a real problem... But if rates stay higher longer, then you're going to see some real distress. Including the regional banking system.”
Sacks
rates w=1.08 · n=12
· E174 (2024-04-12) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 36:17
SUPPORT
“I would expect that if rates stay higher or longer, that's going to create tremendous stress on commercial real estate and therefore on the regional banking system that made all these loans to commercial real estate developers”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -82.1 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E160 2024-01-06 | init | +43.3 | 43.3 | E160 born by Sacks (annual_prediction x2) [w=1.08] |
| E161 2024-01-13 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E161 silent |
| E162 2024-01-19 | reinforce | +9.5 | 51.1 | E162 Sacks support x2 [w=1.08] |
| E163 2024-01-26 | reinforce | +7.9 | 59.0 | E163 Sacks support x2 [w=1.08] |
| E164 2024-02-02 | decay | -2.4 | 56.7 | E164 silent |
| E165 2024-02-09 | reinforce | +7.7 | 64.3 | E165 Friedberg support x2 (new voice) [w=0.79] |
| E165 2024-02-09 | reinforce | +7.0 | 71.3 | E165 Sacks support x3 [w=1.08] |
| E166 2024-02-16 | decay | -2.9 | 68.4 | E166 silent |
| E167 2024-02-23 | decay | -2.7 | 65.7 | E167 silent |
| E168 2024-03-01 | decay | -2.6 | 63.1 | E168 silent |
| E169 2024-03-08 | decay | -2.5 | 60.5 | E169 silent |
| E170 2024-03-15 | decay | -2.4 | 58.1 | E170 silent |
| E171 2024-03-22 | reinforce | +8.2 | 66.3 | E171 Sacks support x3 [w=1.08] |
| E172 2024-03-29 | decay | -2.7 | 63.6 | E172 silent |
| E173 2024-04-05 | decay | -2.5 | 61.1 | E173 silent |
| E174 2024-04-12 | reinforce | +7.6 | 68.7 | E174 Sacks support x3 [w=1.08] |
| E175 2024-04-19 | decay | -2.7 | 65.9 | E175 silent |
| E176 2024-04-26 | decay | -2.6 | 63.3 | E176 silent |
| E177 2024-05-03 | decay | -2.5 | 60.8 | E177 silent |
| E178 2024-05-10 | decay | -2.4 | 58.3 | E178 silent |
| E179 2024-05-17 | decay | -2.3 | 56.0 | E179 silent |
| E180 2024-05-24 | decay | -2.2 | 53.8 | E180 silent |
| E181 2024-05-31 | decay | -2.2 | 51.6 | E181 silent |
| E182 2024-06-07 | decay | -2.1 | 49.5 | E182 silent |
| E183 2024-06-14 | decay | -2.0 | 47.6 | E183 silent |
| E184 2024-06-20 | decay | -1.9 | 45.7 | E184 silent |
| E185 2024-06-29 | decay | -1.8 | 43.8 | E185 silent |
| E186 2024-07-04 | decay | -1.8 | 42.1 | E186 silent |
| E187 2024-07-12 | decay | -1.7 | 40.4 | E187 silent |
| E188 2024-07-19 | decay | -1.6 | 38.8 | E188 silent |
| E189 2024-07-26 | decay | -1.6 | 37.2 | E189 silent |
| E190 2024-08-02 | decay | -1.5 | 35.7 | E190 silent |
| E191 2024-08-09 | decay | -1.4 | 34.3 | E191 silent |
| E192 2024-08-16 | decay | -1.4 | 32.9 | E192 silent |
| E193 2024-08-23 | decay | -1.3 | 31.6 | E193 silent |
| E194 2024-08-30 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E194 silent |
| E195 2024-09-06 | decay | -1.2 | 29.1 | E195 silent |
| E196 2024-09-20 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E196 silent |
| E197 2024-09-27 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E197 silent |
| E198 2024-10-03 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E198 silent |
| E199 2024-10-11 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E199 silent |
| E200 2024-10-18 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E200 silent |
| E201 2024-10-25 | decay | -1.0 | 22.8 | E201 silent |
| E202 2024-11-01 | reinforce | +10.9 | 33.7 | E202 Friedberg support x3 [w=0.79] |
| E202 2024-11-01 | reinforce | +13.0 | 46.8 | E202 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.88] |
| E202 2024-11-01 | reinforce | +8.6 | 55.4 | E202 Sacks support x2 [w=1.08] |
| E203 2024-11-08 | decay | -2.2 | 53.2 | E203 silent |
| E204 2024-11-16 | decay | -2.1 | 51.1 | E204 silent |
| E205 2024-11-23 | decay | -2.0 | 49.0 | E205 silent |
| E206 2024-12-07 | decay | -2.0 | 47.1 | E206 silent |
| E207 2024-12-13 | decay | -1.9 | 45.2 | E207 silent |
| E208 2024-12-20 | decay | -1.8 | 43.4 | E208 silent |
| E209 2025-01-04 | decay | -1.7 | 41.6 | E209 silent |