🪙 Meme coins are a blow-off top — take chips off the table
The parabolic meme-coin wallets (an $8K Shiba Inu position turned into $5.7B in 400 days) are a bubble marker rather than a new normal, so concentrated life-changing gains in Shiba Inu and Dogecoin should be partially sold and diversified. Sacks explicitly amends his own standing 'let your winners ride' advice; he still allows that the broader boom could run for years, so the call is de-risking the meme cohort, not shorting crypto outright.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 52.6 WATCH
DORMANT
band
▼ SHORT cg:shiba-inu
expression · bearish crypto
HIT
outcome · R +81.5% · α +95.7%
2022-10-30
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-10-30 → 2022-10-30 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT cg:shiba-inu (primary play). cg:shiba-inu fell 81.5% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +81.5% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -14.2%
→ α = +81.5 − (-14.2) = +95.7%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +67.4% — did cg:shiba-inu move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 81.5, α 95.7)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-10-30)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | cg:shiba-inu | crypto | PRIMARY | the coin Sacks names outright and says to sell |
| ▼ SHORT | cg:dogecoin | crypto | adjacent | the original meme coin Shiba was created to ape; same cohort |
Mention log
Sacks
crypto w=1.11 · n=18
· E53 (2021-10-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 57:57
SUPPORT
“He said, listen, if you're out there listening and you're sitting on life-changing money, then Shiba Inu, sell. Take it off the table if you can. ... I'm amending my advice of let your winners ride to take some chips off the table prudently.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -44.9 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E53 2021-10-30 | init | +38.9 | 38.9 | E53 born by Sacks (explicit_prediction x2) [w=1.11] |
| E53 2021-10-30 | reinforce | +13.8 | 52.6 | E53 Chamath support x2 (new voice) |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -2.1 | 50.5 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -2.0 | 48.5 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -1.9 | 46.6 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -1.9 | 44.7 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -1.8 | 42.9 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.7 | 41.2 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -1.6 | 39.6 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -1.6 | 38.0 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -1.5 | 36.5 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -1.5 | 35.0 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E82 silent |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -0.6 | 14.8 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.3 | 8.0 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E102 silent |