📈 Air cargo stays tight because passenger belly capacity has not come back
Half the world's air freight moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft, and transpacific passenger traffic is still far below pre-pandemic levels, so effective air-cargo capacity is structurally short while ocean transit runs 120 days. Freighter and converted-freighter operators keep pricing power - Flexport is leasing passenger aircraft with seats ripped out to fly freight and says it will keep adding them.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.0 EMBER
DORMANT
band
▲ LONG ATSG
expression · bullish equities
—
entry flag
⏰ 1205d overdue
eval pending · was due 2023-05-24 (unresolved — e.g. no price data)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2022-05-24)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ATSG | stock | PRIMARY | converted-freighter lessor and operator - the cleanest listed read on freighter demand |
| ▲ LONG | FDX | stock | adjacent | Express air network captures elevated international air-freight yields |
Mention log
RY
Ryan Petersen
(regular guest ×1.0)
equities w=1.17 · n=6
· E82 (2022-05-24) · positioning · strength 2
▶ 45:24
SUPPORT
“And you asked a little bit, air freight, what's going to happen there. Well, remember, 50% of all the world's air freight flies in the belly of passenger planes. There's way less people traveling to and from Asia than there were. ... we've actually got 10 passenger planes that we've leased, and we'll keep doing more, that are not flying any passengers. We're just filling them with freight.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -29.0 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E82 2022-05-24 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E82 born by Ryan Petersen (positioning x2) [w=1.17] |
| E84 2022-06-24 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E84 silent |
| E85 2022-06-30 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E85 silent |
| E86 2022-07-08 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E86 silent |
| E87 2022-07-14 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E87 silent |
| E88 2022-07-22 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E88 silent |
| E89 2022-07-29 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E89 silent |
| E90 2022-08-05 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E90 silent |
| E91 2022-08-13 | decay | -1.1 | 25.2 | E91 silent |
| E92 2022-08-20 | decay | -1.0 | 24.2 | E92 silent |
| E93 2022-08-26 | decay | -1.0 | 23.3 | E93 silent |
| E94 2022-09-01 | decay | -0.9 | 22.3 | E94 silent |
| E95 2022-09-10 | decay | -0.9 | 21.4 | E95 silent |
| E96 2022-09-17 | decay | -0.9 | 20.6 | E96 silent |
| E97 2022-09-23 | decay | -0.8 | 19.8 | E97 silent |
| E98 2022-10-01 | decay | -0.8 | 19.0 | E98 silent |
| E99 2022-10-07 | decay | -0.8 | 18.2 | E99 silent |
| E100 2022-10-14 | decay | -0.7 | 17.5 | E100 silent |
| E101 2022-10-22 | decay | -0.7 | 16.8 | E101 silent |
| E102 2022-10-29 | decay | -0.7 | 16.1 | E102 silent |
| E103 2022-11-05 | decay | -0.6 | 15.5 | E103 silent |
| E105 2022-11-19 | decay | -0.6 | 14.9 | E105 silent |
| E106 2022-12-03 | decay | -0.6 | 14.3 | E106 silent |
| E107 2022-12-10 | decay | -0.6 | 13.7 | E107 silent |
| E108 2022-12-16 | decay | -0.5 | 13.1 | E108 silent |
| E109 2022-12-24 | decay | -0.5 | 12.6 | E109 silent |
| E110 2023-01-06 | decay | -0.5 | 12.1 | E110 silent |
| E111 2023-01-13 | decay | -0.5 | 11.6 | E111 silent |
| E112 2023-01-20 | decay | -0.5 | 11.2 | E112 silent |
| E113 2023-01-27 | decay | -0.4 | 10.7 | E113 silent |
| E114 2023-02-04 | decay | -0.4 | 10.3 | E114 silent |
| E115 2023-02-11 | decay | -0.4 | 9.9 | E115 silent |
| E116 2023-02-17 | decay | -0.4 | 9.5 | E116 silent |
| E118 2023-03-03 | decay | -0.4 | 9.1 | E118 silent |
| E119 2023-03-11 | decay | -0.4 | 8.7 | E119 silent |
| E120 2023-03-17 | decay | -0.3 | 8.4 | E120 silent |
| E121 2023-03-24 | decay | -0.3 | 8.1 | E121 silent |
| E122 2023-03-31 | decay | -0.3 | 7.7 | E122 silent |
| E123 2023-04-07 | decay | -0.3 | 7.4 | E123 silent |
| E124 2023-04-14 | decay | -0.3 | 7.1 | E124 silent |
| E125 2023-04-21 | decay | -0.3 | 6.8 | E125 silent |
| E126 2023-04-28 | decay | -0.3 | 6.6 | E126 silent |
| E128 2023-05-12 | decay | -0.3 | 6.3 | E128 silent |
| E129 2023-05-19 | decay | -0.3 | 6.0 | E129 silent |