IBIT

iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

etf all instruments

-8.5

net board stance what this means

42.88

-0.3% · close 2026-11-06

-9% / +16% / -25%

1m / 3m / 12m

-53%

vs SPY since 2025-08-01

36%

of 52w range · -28.8% off high

—

hit rate as primary

Where All-In Alpha stands — 1 live idea

idea	call	play	conviction	contributes	moved yet?	scored in
🪙 OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk	▼ SHORT	adjacent ×0.5	17.0	-8.5	—	337d

Where the winds are blowing

NET BOARD STANCE, LAST 60 EPISODES — rising = the besties are building this position, falling = abandoning it. From the conviction ledger; an idea counts from birth until its window closes. Dots mark episodes where this ticker's ideas were actually mentioned; a dashed stretch is silence. Last mention E292 · silent for 4 episodes.

PRICE VS SPY OVER THE SAME WINDOW, % — did the talk lead the tape or follow it?

Who's pushing which way

each voice's net push ON THIS TICKER — their most recent stance per idea × that idea's direction ON THIS TICKER × strength, so supporting a bearish idea pushes down, unless this ticker is listed as the other side of it. Not conviction (that lives on the idea); this is direction of travel per person. what w= means

Chamath 53% crypto

1 idea (0 live) · last heard E204

pushes up

Gavin Baker guest ×1.0

1 idea (0 live) · last heard E206

pushes up

Joe Lonsdale guest ×1.0

1 idea (0 live) · last heard E206

pushes up

Sacks 58% crypto

1 idea (0 live) · last heard E218

pushes up

Friedberg 58% crypto

2 ideas (1 live) · last heard E292

neutral

What resolves next

scoring dates for the live ideas holding this ticker — each one turns into a scored result on that date, whether it flatters anyone or not

2027-10-10 337d ▼ 🪙 OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk 17

Track record on IBIT

No closed window has used this ticker as its primary play, so there is no scored record here yet. Adjacent plays are listed but never scored.

idea	call	play	result	return	vs SPY	scored
🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold	▲ LONG	adjacent	RIGHT	+55.0%	+41.9	2025-05-31

The tape — what was actually said

every capture on any idea holding IBIT, newest first · quotes verbatim, timestamps deep-link into the episode

Friedberg support ×2 ▼ on 🪙 OpenAI's withheld cryptography results put public-key crypto wallets at risk E292 · 2026-10-10 ▶ 49:20

So the absence of evidence suggests that maybe there were some pretty major breakthroughs made in cryptography. And then there were a number of people that posted that cryptographic wallets with public keys are now very seriously at risk. So there's a bit of a panic under way in the crypto community about what do we do now? And if this ends up having a set of mathematical solves for number factorization that could lead to breaking public key cryptography before quantum computers come around, which is what everyone assumed would be the thing that would break public key cryptography, then we have a real problem.

Sacks support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E218 · 2025-03-08 ▶ 1:42:33

So we have the reserve and we have the stockpile. So the reserve is just Bitcoin. The goal is long-term preservation. Think of it as like a digital Fort Knox for digital gold. We want to put the digital gold in there. We want to keep it secure. We never want to sell it.

Joe Lonsdale support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 43:18

Listen, I am very bullish Bitcoin. I love all the energy of our society around it

Gavin Baker support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 31:31

But I do think Bitcoin will at some point be a serious threat to the US dollar. And that just is what it is

Friedberg support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E206 · 2024-12-07 ▶ 29:40

It should be kind of store of value and alternative. It's just going to take over gold

Chamath support ×2 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E204 · 2024-11-16 ▶ 16:20

No, it's a totally correlated asset. I mean, there will be a point, and it's probably in our lifetime where it is an independent asset and a non-speculative store of value. There will be that day, but that day is not now.

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 25:50

I said the breakout asset was going to be Bitcoin

Friedberg support ×1 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E201 · 2024-10-25 ▶ 21:55

it's going to be gold, it's going to be Bitcoin

Chamath support ×3 ▲ on 🪙 Post-halving cycle plus ETF flows reprice Bitcoin against gold E181 · 2024-05-31 ▶ 57:13

And if you look at what this price chart could indicate, is that if this thing starts to get to these levels of appreciation, it is going to completely replace gold and start to become something that has transactional utility for hard assets.