🏛️ A Democrat trifecta prices in the unrealized-gains wealth tax

“The tax rates are completely different than the Biden budget proposals where there's no unrealized capital gains, etc. They went to 28% and 28%. So it's not going to be what was proposed by Biden.”

“It was in the last Biden-Harris budget. It was in the Harris platform at the DNC.”

“You're going to get a continuation of the Biden, Harris, Elizabeth Warren economic program that we've had for the last four years.”

“Whereas maybe she actually is much more moderate and that's what people around her have always said, is that she's more moderate and that she's coming to actually form her own platform and she just needed time to do that.”

“We just had one of her top economic advisors come out on, I think it was CNBC defending it, and her campaign confirmed that she supports it. So now the argument has become, well, she supports it, it is really part of the platform. She would do it if she could, but she's not going to be able to do it.”

“Ultimately, I think what ends up happening is most of the stuff in the middle has a decent chance of happening. The stuff at the fringes, I think they get put up, Sacks almost has like a sacrificial lamb.”

“Look, I think it's definitely a quelling impact, and it's definitely stupid, and definitely shouldn't happen.”

“I think what will happen is funds, governments, etc. for the right entrepreneurs with the right assets will help you pay the exit tax so that you can just leave the United States. And that's going to be an investment class that's going to emerge, in my opinion, which is these organizations that will pool capital, sovereign wealth funds specifically.”

“This is going to put so much cold water on the entrepreneurial market. It's going to make people just have less liquidity to invest in things. I think this is going to be disastrous.”

“On the liquidity part, you're being taxed a huge amount without having the cash to pay the tax bill. And, yes, they've tried to mitigate that by creating this installment plan, but you're still going to need to go out and sell large chunks of your company every time you get an upround in order to pay the tax bill. And that means that you're losing ownership of your company. All these assets are going to be dumped on the market. And you're basically starving the market of capital, actually, right?”

“And at the end of the day, the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, and they did not overturn on the position that the government actually did not overstep their authority to be able to tax unrealized capital gains. So there is some Supreme Court case precedents here that indicates that this will not get thrown out on an unconstitutional ground basis. So there is a lot of conversation that this might actually become a real case.”

“If they support Biden and he wins a second term, I suspect that there's going to be a lot of their legislative agenda that basically gets put up for vote.”

“Plus, you've got hostility to options as compensation in terms of the 25% unrealized gains tax.”

“Well, I can promise you this. I don't think Trump's going to raise taxes, but Biden will if he has the trifecta.”

“And then also, if they keep raising taxes, like their plans are, then affluent people are going to be trying to protect their assets.”

“I think it's inevitable that we're going to raise federal revenue through some form of taxation that's going to feel deeply uncomfortable and inappropriate, and it's going to have negative economic consequences.”

“if the Democrats have the trifecta, if Biden wins reelection and holds on to the Senate and House, but without Manchin and Sinema, I think you have to price in the strong possibility that this passes.”

“This is ridiculous. These things will never pass.”