🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders
Beijing forcing out Zhang Yiming at ByteDance, the Pinduoduo CEO and disappearing Jack Ma — in the same week as the crypto crackdown — is the state asserting ownership of its private tech champions, which is a permanent risk discount on Chinese tech equities and a relative advantage for US listings.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 76.4 GREEN
EMBER
band · contested
▼ SHORT KWEB
expression · bearish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +58.4% · α +64.3%
2022-05-22
window closed
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▼ SHORT KWEB (primary play). KWEB fell 58.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +58.4% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -5.8%
→ α = +58.4 − (-5.8) = +64.3%
— what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
Stock-selection read: +52.6% — did KWEB move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
- Rule fired:
▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 58.4, α 64.3)· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0· MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-22)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▼ SHORT | KWEB | etf | PRIMARY | cleanest basket expression of China internet political risk |
| ▼ SHORT | BABA | stock | adjacent | Jack Ma is the named case study |
| ▼ SHORT | FXI | etf | adjacent | large-cap China proxy for the same de-rating (via merged idea china-tech-equities-political-discount-2021) |
| ▼ SHORT | PDD | stock | adjacent | its CEO's forced exit is one of the two receipts cited |
| ▼ SHORT | TAL | stock | adjacent | direct victim of the 2021-07-24 for-profit tutoring ban Jason recaps (via merged idea china-tech-equities-political-discount-2021) |
| ▼ SHORT | TCEHY | stock | adjacent | lost ~$100B of market cap in three days on the music-rights ruling discussed on air (via merged idea china-tech-equities-political-discount-2021) |
Mention log
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E33 (2021-05-22) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 59:02
SUPPORT
“But look, but they deserve that level of scrutiny because the amount of power they have. But yeah, we don't put them in jail or house arrest or drive them out of their companies. ... And that is a big advantage for the US economy.”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E42 (2021-07-30) · positioning · strength 3
▶ 19:36
SUPPORT
“if I was a betting man, which I am general, but I'm not in China, because just don't understand the market, it's super, great casino, it's a stupid place to bet. ... I think that what we're starting what we're starting to see is the beginning of nationalizations.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 24:27
SUPPORT
“And I think the last thing that's going on here that's different is you saw China put the kibosh on. There are 34 IPOs of major Chinese tech companies that were scheduled to IPO in US markets, and they have sort of shut that pipeline down. ... I would come out in the middle and say they've just attached a discount rate that now every investor has to consider political risk when they invest in China, because the future is very uncertain.”
Jason
politics-market w=1.00 · n=62
· E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 31:02
SUPPORT
“But there's no more game in terms of building companies and investing in China. How is the West ever going to trust? How is Goldman Sachs or Sequoia, you know, launching a venture firm there or retail investors or hedge fund investors? How are they ever going to want to participate in that market? ... And I just don't see anybody wanting to invest there anymore.”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E44 (2021-08-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 3
▶ 52:09
SUPPORT
“Capital markets in China, I think now, are the most volatile they've ever been. Essentially, the People's Republic of China, the government, the CCP, chooses how and who will make money. ... So you could eviscerate $2 trillion of market cap tomorrow if they decide, you know what, that VIE for Alibaba ... they're starting to now introduce legislation as a prelude, in my opinion, to canceling some of these VIEs in the most important area that we care about, which is tech. ... So you put these two things together, it is a moment in China tech. It's a takeover.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 55:07
SUPPORT
“Now, how do you actively spread positive energy? I mean, as a business person under that regulation, what does that even mean? ... Yeah, they're bringing it all under their control. That's what it's about.”
Jason
politics-market w=1.00 · n=62
· E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 53:10
SUPPORT
“They suspended disbelief because they were greedy. ... This is a way for them to say, positive energy means don't criticize Xi Jinping or the CCP or bring up topics that are in the no-fly zone like the Uyghurs.”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 32:28
OPPOSE
“This is the only thing I've ever said that would make me want to move to China. This one rule is the most incredible thing I've ever heard, and they're so smart. By the way, what's so beautiful is they send Fentanyl and TikTok to us so that we get addicted to that shit. And they're like, no, you guys are going to learn STEM so that you can take over the world. It's beautiful. It's brilliant.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 34:47
SUPPORT
“I'll be a dissenting voice here. This is like if we had given Tipper Gore dictatorial powers. I mean, this is insane. They're going to determine how many hours a kid can play video games. I mean, look, I get the potential benefit, but this is incredibly intrusive into the lives of citizens. ... And how many other insane policies will they foist on people with this mentality of you don't get to live your life individually?”
Jason
politics-market w=1.00 · n=62
· E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 38:37
SUPPORT
“you can overplay a hand and by squeezing people too tightly, you can't play video games, you can't run your own companies, you're going to get replaced, you can't practice your own religion, you can't say what you want, be a journalist. ... So you could see this, actually, I think, you know, maybe it's a small chance, 5% or 10%, you know, creating a lot of social unrest.”
Chamath
politics-market w=1.02 · n=96
· E46 (2021-09-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 45:42
SUPPORT
“China is basically becoming a completely vertically integrated government where the public and private sector has no real clear delineation ... China is systematically decomposing and basically destabilizing all the China Internet companies. They're going to control and inbound all of the critical resources.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E46 (2021-09-14) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 48:05
SUPPORT
“they're bringing these entrepreneurs, these moguls, their oligarchs under their thumb, under the thumb of the CCP. ... And Xi Jinping, they're consolidating control and power and money. And it's also about the data.”
Sacks
politics-market w=0.97 · n=88
· E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2
▶ 27:20
SUPPORT
“The CCP really seems to be increasing its control and putting these people under its thumb. And there are a bunch of tech companies there like Alibaba, DD, Tencent, Baidu, jd.com. They've all been targeted for fines and tighter controls. And China's pretty much shut down the foreign IPO market for their tech companies.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -71.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E33 2021-05-22 | init | +20.4 | 20.4 | E33 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) [w=1.02] |
| E33 2021-05-22 | reinforce | +17.3 | 37.7 | E33 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97] |
| E34 2021-05-31 | decay | -1.5 | 36.2 | E34 silent |
| E35 2021-06-13 | decay | -1.4 | 34.8 | E35 silent |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.4 | 33.4 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.3 | 32.0 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.3 | 30.7 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.2 | 29.5 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.2 | 28.3 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.1 | 27.2 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | reinforce | +13.4 | 40.6 | E42 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E42 2021-07-30 | reinforce | +10.3 | 50.9 | E42 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97] |
| E42 2021-07-30 | reinforce | +13.3 | 64.2 | E42 Jason support x3 (new voice) |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -2.6 | 61.6 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | reinforce | +7.1 | 68.7 | E44 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02] |
| E44 2021-08-28 | reinforce | +3.8 | 72.4 | E44 Jason support x1 |
| E44 2021-08-28 | reinforce | +4.0 | 76.4 | E44 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E45 2021-09-04 | oppose | -12.2 | 64.2 | E45 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02] |
| E45 2021-09-04 | oppose | -10.1 | 54.1 | E45 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E45 2021-09-04 | reinforce | +6.6 | 60.8 | E45 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E45 2021-09-04 | reinforce | +5.9 | 66.6 | E45 Jason support x2 |
| E46 2021-09-14 | reinforce | +5.1 | 71.8 | E46 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.02] |
| E46 2021-09-14 | reinforce | +4.1 | 75.8 | E46 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -3.0 | 72.8 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -2.9 | 69.9 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -2.8 | 67.1 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -2.7 | 64.4 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -2.6 | 61.8 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -2.5 | 59.4 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -2.4 | 57.0 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -2.3 | 54.7 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -2.2 | 52.5 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -2.1 | 50.4 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -2.0 | 48.4 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -1.9 | 46.5 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | reinforce | +7.8 | 54.2 | E60 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97] |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -2.2 | 52.1 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -2.1 | 50.0 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -2.0 | 48.0 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -1.9 | 46.1 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -1.8 | 44.2 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -1.8 | 42.4 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -1.7 | 40.7 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -1.6 | 39.1 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -1.6 | 37.6 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -1.5 | 36.1 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -1.4 | 34.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -1.4 | 33.2 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | decay | -1.3 | 31.9 | E74 silent |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.6 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.4 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.2 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | -1.1 | 27.1 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | -1.1 | 26.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | -1.0 | 25.0 | E80 silent |