← pool

🏛️ China goes for the jugular on its own tech founders

Beijing forcing out Zhang Yiming at ByteDance, the Pinduoduo CEO and disappearing Jack Ma — in the same week as the crypto crackdown — is the state asserting ownership of its private tech champions, which is a permanent risk discount on Chinese tech equities and a relative advantage for US listings.

0 CONVICTION
peaked 76.4 GREEN
EMBER
band · contested
▼ SHORT KWEB
expression · bearish politics-market
HIT
outcome · R +58.4% · α +64.3%
2022-05-22
window closed

⚖ Why this verdict

fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set

  1. Window: 2021-05-22 → 2022-05-22 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
  2. The call: ▼ SHORT KWEB (primary play). KWEB fell 58.4% over the window → direction-adjusted R = +58.4% (the call made money).
  3. Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -5.8%α = +58.4 − (-5.8) = +64.3% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
    Stock-selection read: +52.6% — did KWEB move the predicted way relative to the market. The two only differ on a SHORT: this call beat the index outright.
  4. Rule fired:
    ▶ HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5 ✓ (R 58.4, α 64.3)
    · PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0
    · MISS — everything else
  5. Credit: supporters of a HIT earn 1.0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Chamath, Jason, Sacks | opposed: Friedberg

Conviction timeline

bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15

Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-05-22)

Plays

expressionsymbolkindrelevancerationale
▼ SHORT KWEBetf PRIMARY cleanest basket expression of China internet political risk
▼ SHORT BABAstock adjacent Jack Ma is the named case study
▼ SHORT FXIetf adjacent large-cap China proxy for the same de-rating (via merged idea china-tech-equities-political-discount-2021)
▼ SHORT PDDstock adjacent its CEO's forced exit is one of the two receipts cited
▼ SHORT TALstock adjacent direct victim of the 2021-07-24 for-profit tutoring ban Jason recaps (via merged idea china-tech-equities-political-discount-2021)
▼ SHORT TCEHYstock adjacent lost ~$100B of market cap in three days on the music-rights ruling discussed on air (via merged idea china-tech-equities-political-discount-2021)

Mention log

Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E33 (2021-05-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 58:19 SUPPORT
“They're going for the jugular. ... I guess maybe the speculative part in me would say they're showing them who's really in charge of these companies.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E33 (2021-05-22) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 59:02 SUPPORT
“But look, but they deserve that level of scrutiny because the amount of power they have. But yeah, we don't put them in jail or house arrest or drive them out of their companies. ... And that is a big advantage for the US economy.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E42 (2021-07-30) · positioning · strength 3 ▶ 19:36 SUPPORT
“if I was a betting man, which I am general, but I'm not in China, because just don't understand the market, it's super, great casino, it's a stupid place to bet. ... I think that what we're starting what we're starting to see is the beginning of nationalizations.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 24:27 SUPPORT
“And I think the last thing that's going on here that's different is you saw China put the kibosh on. There are 34 IPOs of major Chinese tech companies that were scheduled to IPO in US markets, and they have sort of shut that pipeline down. ... I would come out in the middle and say they've just attached a discount rate that now every investor has to consider political risk when they invest in China, because the future is very uncertain.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E42 (2021-07-30) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 31:02 SUPPORT
“But there's no more game in terms of building companies and investing in China. How is the West ever going to trust? How is Goldman Sachs or Sequoia, you know, launching a venture firm there or retail investors or hedge fund investors? How are they ever going to want to participate in that market? ... And I just don't see anybody wanting to invest there anymore.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E44 (2021-08-28) · explicit_prediction · strength 3 ▶ 52:09 SUPPORT
“Capital markets in China, I think now, are the most volatile they've ever been. Essentially, the People's Republic of China, the government, the CCP, chooses how and who will make money. ... So you could eviscerate $2 trillion of market cap tomorrow if they decide, you know what, that VIE for Alibaba ... they're starting to now introduce legislation as a prelude, in my opinion, to canceling some of these VIEs in the most important area that we care about, which is tech. ... So you put these two things together, it is a moment in China tech. It's a takeover.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 55:07 SUPPORT
“Now, how do you actively spread positive energy? I mean, as a business person under that regulation, what does that even mean? ... Yeah, they're bringing it all under their control. That's what it's about.”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E44 (2021-08-28) · sentiment · strength 1 ▶ 53:10 SUPPORT
“They suspended disbelief because they were greedy. ... This is a way for them to say, positive energy means don't criticize Xi Jinping or the CCP or bring up topics that are in the no-fly zone like the Uyghurs.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 32:28 OPPOSE
“This is the only thing I've ever said that would make me want to move to China. This one rule is the most incredible thing I've ever heard, and they're so smart. By the way, what's so beautiful is they send Fentanyl and TikTok to us so that we get addicted to that shit. And they're like, no, you guys are going to learn STEM so that you can take over the world. It's beautiful. It's brilliant.”
Friedberg
Friedberg politics-market w=0.84 · n=74 · E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 33:54 OPPOSE
“But again, it's another, in my opinion, it's another tool that China will use to outcompete this century.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 34:47 SUPPORT
“I'll be a dissenting voice here. This is like if we had given Tipper Gore dictatorial powers. I mean, this is insane. They're going to determine how many hours a kid can play video games. I mean, look, I get the potential benefit, but this is incredibly intrusive into the lives of citizens. ... And how many other insane policies will they foist on people with this mentality of you don't get to live your life individually?”
Jason
Jason politics-market w=1.00 · n=62 · E45 (2021-09-04) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 38:37 SUPPORT
“you can overplay a hand and by squeezing people too tightly, you can't play video games, you can't run your own companies, you're going to get replaced, you can't practice your own religion, you can't say what you want, be a journalist. ... So you could see this, actually, I think, you know, maybe it's a small chance, 5% or 10%, you know, creating a lot of social unrest.”
Chamath
Chamath politics-market w=1.02 · n=96 · E46 (2021-09-14) · explicit_prediction · strength 2 ▶ 45:42 SUPPORT
“China is basically becoming a completely vertically integrated government where the public and private sector has no real clear delineation ... China is systematically decomposing and basically destabilizing all the China Internet companies. They're going to control and inbound all of the critical resources.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E46 (2021-09-14) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 48:05 SUPPORT
“they're bringing these entrepreneurs, these moguls, their oligarchs under their thumb, under the thumb of the CCP. ... And Xi Jinping, they're consolidating control and power and money. And it's also about the data.”
Sacks
Sacks politics-market w=0.97 · n=88 · E60 (2021-12-23) · sentiment · strength 2 ▶ 27:20 SUPPORT
“The CCP really seems to be increasing its control and putting these people under its thumb. And there are a bunch of tech companies there like Alibaba, DD, Tencent, Baidu, jd.com. They've all been targeted for fines and tighter controls. And China's pretty much shut down the foreign IPO market for their tech companies.”

Who built this conviction

each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement

Chamath
Chamath w=1.02
5 scoring events · 41% of moves
+46.0 / -12.2 → net +33.7
Sacks
Sacks w=0.97
6 scoring events · 35% of moves
+50.1 → net +50.1
Jason
Jason w=1.00
3 scoring events · 16% of moves
+22.9 → net +22.9
Friedberg
Friedberg w=0.84
1 scoring event · 7% of moves
+0.0 / -10.1 → net -10.1

⏳ decay drained -71.7 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one

Score events

episodekindΔafternote
E33 2021-05-22 init +20.4 20.4 E33 born by Chamath (sentiment x2) [w=1.02]
E33 2021-05-22 reinforce +17.3 37.7 E33 Sacks support x2 (new voice) [w=0.97]
E34 2021-05-31 decay -1.5 36.2 E34 silent
E35 2021-06-13 decay -1.4 34.8 E35 silent
E36 2021-06-18 decay -1.4 33.4 E36 silent
E37 2021-06-25 decay -1.3 32.0 E37 silent
E38 2021-07-03 decay -1.3 30.7 E38 silent
E39 2021-07-09 decay -1.2 29.5 E39 silent
E40 2021-07-16 decay -1.2 28.3 E40 silent
E41 2021-07-23 decay -1.1 27.2 E41 silent
E42 2021-07-30 reinforce +13.4 40.6 E42 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02]
E42 2021-07-30 reinforce +10.3 50.9 E42 Sacks support x3 [w=0.97]
E42 2021-07-30 reinforce +13.3 64.2 E42 Jason support x3 (new voice)
E43 2021-08-06 decay -2.6 61.6 E43 silent
E44 2021-08-28 reinforce +7.1 68.7 E44 Chamath support x3 [w=1.02]
E44 2021-08-28 reinforce +3.8 72.4 E44 Jason support x1
E44 2021-08-28 reinforce +4.0 76.4 E44 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E45 2021-09-04 oppose -12.2 64.2 E45 Chamath opposes x2 [w=1.02]
E45 2021-09-04 oppose -10.1 54.1 E45 Friedberg opposes x2 [w=0.84]
E45 2021-09-04 reinforce +6.6 60.8 E45 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E45 2021-09-04 reinforce +5.9 66.6 E45 Jason support x2
E46 2021-09-14 reinforce +5.1 71.8 E46 Chamath support x2 (flipped from oppose) [w=1.02]
E46 2021-09-14 reinforce +4.1 75.8 E46 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E47 2021-09-18 decay -3.0 72.8 E47 silent
E49 2021-10-02 decay -2.9 69.9 E49 silent
E50 2021-10-09 decay -2.8 67.1 E50 silent
E51 2021-10-16 decay -2.7 64.4 E51 silent
E52 2021-10-23 decay -2.6 61.8 E52 silent
E53 2021-10-30 decay -2.5 59.4 E53 silent
E54 2021-11-06 decay -2.4 57.0 E54 silent
E55 2021-11-13 decay -2.3 54.7 E55 silent
E56 2021-11-20 decay -2.2 52.5 E56 silent
E57 2021-12-04 decay -2.1 50.4 E57 silent
E58 2021-12-11 decay -2.0 48.4 E58 silent
E59 2021-12-17 decay -1.9 46.5 E59 silent
E60 2021-12-23 reinforce +7.8 54.2 E60 Sacks support x2 [w=0.97]
E61 2021-12-29 decay -2.2 52.1 E61 silent
E62 2022-01-08 decay -2.1 50.0 E62 silent
E63 2022-01-15 decay -2.0 48.0 E63 silent
E64 2022-01-22 decay -1.9 46.1 E64 silent
E65 2022-01-29 decay -1.8 44.2 E65 silent
E66 2022-02-05 decay -1.8 42.4 E66 silent
E67 2022-02-12 decay -1.7 40.7 E67 silent
E68 2022-02-19 decay -1.6 39.1 E68 silent
E70 2022-02-24 decay -1.6 37.6 E70 silent
E71 2022-03-05 decay -1.5 36.1 E71 silent
E72 2022-03-19 decay -1.4 34.6 E72 silent
E73 2022-03-26 decay -1.4 33.2 E73 silent
E74 2022-04-01 decay -1.3 31.9 E74 silent
E75 2022-04-09 decay -1.3 30.6 E75 silent
E76 2022-04-16 decay -1.2 29.4 E76 silent
E77 2022-04-23 decay -1.2 28.2 E77 silent
E78 2022-04-30 decay -1.1 27.1 E78 silent
E79 2022-05-07 decay -1.1 26.0 E79 silent
E80 2022-05-13 decay -1.0 25.0 E80 silent