🌍 Vaccines ship in Q4 2020
Production is being scaled in parallel with trials (mRNA and viral vaccines both), so staged vaccine releases begin Q4 2020 with doses for healthcare workers — years faster than consensus expected, unlocking the full reopening trade.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 35.1 EMBER
EMBER
band
▲ LONG MRNA
expression · bullish macro
RIGHT
result · return +116.6% · vs SPY +96.7%
2020-12-20
born 2020-06-20 (E4) → window closed
⚖ Why this result
fully deterministic — computed from daily closes on the scoring date; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2020-06-20 → 2020-12-20 — first mention + 6-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG MRNA (primary play). MRNA rose 116.6% over the window → return (sign flipped for a SHORT) = +116.6% (the call made money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned +19.8% → vs SPY = +116.6 − (+19.8) = +96.7% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the result uses.
- Rule fired:
▶ RIGHT — return ≥ +10% AND beat SPY by 5+ ✓ (return 116.6, vs SPY 96.7)· HALF — return ≥ +5% OR beat SPY at all· WRONG — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a RIGHT earn 1.0 each, opposers the opposite — this feeds the scoreboard. supported: Friedberg | proxy-sensitive: PFE→PARTIAL (+22.4%)
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2020-06-20)
Plays
Mention log newest first
Friedberg
macro 46% · n=40
· E12 (2020-11-11) · sentiment · strength 1
▶ 13:57
SUPPORT
“This was expected. If you guys go back a couple of podcasts, you had a prediction on when we would have a vaccine. I think I predicted end of September because of the way that they set up the production cycle in parallel with the testing cycle... And it was going to happen this fall.”
Friedberg
macro 46% · n=40
· E4 (2020-06-20) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:03:41
SUPPORT
· horizon 6mo
“There's going to be a stage release of vaccines that will probably, believe it or not, start in Q4 of this year, and there's been production ramp up going on in parallel to testing... we could have doses that are available for distribution to healthcare workers and frontline people in Q4 of this year is what I would kind of set the over-under at.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total push on the score, in conviction points across every mention — supports and opposes · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -11.5 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E4 2020-06-20 | init | +35.0 | 35.0 | E4 born by Friedberg (explicit_prediction x2) |
| E5 2020-07-11 | decay | -1.4 | 33.6 | E5 silent |
| E6 2020-07-31 | decay | -1.3 | 32.3 | E6 silent |
| E7 2020-09-09 | decay | -1.3 | 31.0 | E7 silent |
| E8 2020-09-19 | decay | -1.2 | 29.7 | E8 silent |
| E9 2020-10-03 | decay | -1.2 | 28.5 | E9 silent |
| E10 2020-10-16 | decay | -1.1 | 27.4 | E10 silent |
| E11 2020-11-04 | decay | -1.1 | 26.3 | E11 silent |
| E12 2020-11-11 | reinforce | +8.8 | 35.1 | E12 Friedberg support x1 |
| E14 2020-12-04 | decay | -1.4 | 33.7 | E14 silent |
| E15 2020-12-18 | decay | -1.3 | 32.4 | E15 silent |