📈 Builders green-light supply once the inflation boogeyman dies
Homebuilders have the capital but not the economic justification to build while they fear inflation, rate hikes and demand destruction. Once breakevens roll over, builders return in size, green-light projects and housing supply kicks back up aggressively — with a populist NIMBY-reform tailwind as young buyers get locked out by institutional bidders.
0
CONVICTION
peaked 46.4 WATCH
DORMANT
band · contested
▲ LONG ITB
expression · bullish equities
MISS
outcome · R -20.1% · α -9.4%
2022-06-13
window closed
⚠ CONFLICTING IDEA ON THE SAME TICKER
— the board is arguing with itself; net it before trading (ticker view →)
ITB ·
LA fire rebuild stalls for years, not months
SHORT
DORMANT 15.0
← stronger than this idea (0.0)
⚖ Why this verdict
fully deterministic — evaluate.py replays this from daily closes; nothing below is editable or hand-set
- Window: 2021-06-13 → 2022-06-13 — first mention + 12-month horizon, then the window locks.
- The call: ▲ LONG ITB (primary play). ITB fell 20.1% over the window → direction-adjusted R = -20.1% (the call lost money).
- Benchmark: holding SPY over the same window returned -10.7% → α = -20.1 − (-10.7) = -9.4% — what this call made or lost against just owning the index. This is the number the verdict uses.
- Rule fired:
· HIT — R ≥ +10% AND α ≥ +5· PARTIAL — R ≥ +5% OR α ≥ 0▶ MISS — everything else
- Credit: supporters of a MISS earn 0 each, opposers the inverse — this feeds the scoreboard weights. supported: Jason | opposed: Chamath, Sacks
Conviction timeline
bands: green ≥ 65 · watch ≥ 45 · ember ≥ 15
Plays vs SPY · % since first mention (2021-06-13)
Plays
| expression | symbol | kind | relevance | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ LONG | ITB | etf | PRIMARY | pure homebuilder basket — direct expression of builders green-lighting projects |
| ▲ LONG | LEN | stock | adjacent | large national builder with the balance sheet to ramp starts |
| ▲ LONG | XHB | etf | adjacent | homebuilding + building products, captures the supply-ramp supply chain |
Mention log
Jason
equities w=0.97 · n=105
· E35 (2021-06-13) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 1:01:53
SUPPORT
“I think what's happening now becomes the catalyst to break the NIMBYism. ... And, you know, you guys know I have a housing company in my portfolio. And they are getting absolutely deluge with people begging them to do affordable housing in different locations.”
Chamath
equities w=0.84 · n=160
· E74 (2022-04-01) · explicit_prediction · strength 2
▶ 6:03
OPPOSE
“restoration hardware sells overpriced crappy furniture into a housing market that's basically shut down because refi rates are at 5%. ... We have massive NIMBYism up and down the stack that prevents us from building the housing supply we need.”
Who built this conviction
each voice's total force on the score — supports and opposes from every mention, weighted exactly as the replay applied them · share = % of all mention-driven movement
⏳ decay drained -27.6 over the idea's life — that's time passing, attributed to no one
Score events
| episode | kind | Δ | after | note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E35 2021-06-13 | init | +34.0 | 34.0 | E35 born by Jason (explicit_prediction x2) [w=0.97] |
| E35 2021-06-13 | reinforce | +12.4 | 46.4 | E35 Chamath support x2 (new voice) [w=0.84] |
| E35 2021-06-13 | oppose | -10.6 | 35.8 | E35 Sacks opposes x2 [w=0.89] |
| E36 2021-06-18 | decay | -1.4 | 34.4 | E36 silent |
| E37 2021-06-25 | decay | -1.4 | 33.0 | E37 silent |
| E38 2021-07-03 | decay | -1.3 | 31.7 | E38 silent |
| E39 2021-07-09 | decay | -1.3 | 30.4 | E39 silent |
| E40 2021-07-16 | decay | -1.2 | 29.2 | E40 silent |
| E41 2021-07-23 | decay | -1.2 | 28.0 | E41 silent |
| E42 2021-07-30 | decay | -1.1 | 26.9 | E42 silent |
| E43 2021-08-06 | decay | -1.1 | 25.8 | E43 silent |
| E44 2021-08-28 | decay | -1.0 | 24.8 | E44 silent |
| E45 2021-09-04 | decay | -1.0 | 23.8 | E45 silent |
| E46 2021-09-14 | decay | -1.0 | 22.9 | E46 silent |
| E47 2021-09-18 | decay | -0.9 | 21.9 | E47 silent |
| E49 2021-10-02 | decay | -0.9 | 21.1 | E49 silent |
| E50 2021-10-09 | decay | -0.8 | 20.2 | E50 silent |
| E51 2021-10-16 | decay | -0.8 | 19.4 | E51 silent |
| E52 2021-10-23 | decay | -0.8 | 18.6 | E52 silent |
| E53 2021-10-30 | decay | -0.7 | 17.9 | E53 silent |
| E54 2021-11-06 | decay | -0.7 | 17.2 | E54 silent |
| E55 2021-11-13 | decay | -0.7 | 16.5 | E55 silent |
| E56 2021-11-20 | decay | -0.7 | 15.8 | E56 silent |
| E57 2021-12-04 | decay | -0.6 | 15.2 | E57 silent |
| E58 2021-12-11 | decay | -0.6 | 14.6 | E58 silent |
| E59 2021-12-17 | decay | -0.6 | 14.0 | E59 silent |
| E60 2021-12-23 | decay | -0.6 | 13.4 | E60 silent |
| E61 2021-12-29 | decay | -0.5 | 12.9 | E61 silent |
| E62 2022-01-08 | decay | -0.5 | 12.4 | E62 silent |
| E63 2022-01-15 | decay | -0.5 | 11.9 | E63 silent |
| E64 2022-01-22 | decay | -0.5 | 11.4 | E64 silent |
| E65 2022-01-29 | decay | -0.5 | 11.0 | E65 silent |
| E66 2022-02-05 | decay | -0.4 | 10.5 | E66 silent |
| E67 2022-02-12 | decay | -0.4 | 10.1 | E67 silent |
| E68 2022-02-19 | decay | -0.4 | 9.7 | E68 silent |
| E70 2022-02-24 | decay | -0.4 | 9.3 | E70 silent |
| E71 2022-03-05 | decay | -0.4 | 8.9 | E71 silent |
| E72 2022-03-19 | decay | -0.4 | 8.6 | E72 silent |
| E73 2022-03-26 | decay | -0.3 | 8.2 | E73 silent |
| E74 2022-04-01 | oppose | -8.2 | 0.0 | E74 Chamath opposes x2 [w=0.84] |
| E75 2022-04-09 | decay | · | 0.0 | E75 silent |
| E76 2022-04-16 | decay | · | 0.0 | E76 silent |
| E77 2022-04-23 | decay | · | 0.0 | E77 silent |
| E78 2022-04-30 | decay | · | 0.0 | E78 silent |
| E79 2022-05-07 | decay | · | 0.0 | E79 silent |
| E80 2022-05-13 | decay | · | 0.0 | E80 silent |
| E81 2022-05-23 | decay | · | 0.0 | E81 silent |
| E82 2022-05-24 | decay | · | 0.0 | E82 silent |